Mitchell committee calls the bluff of the bluffers

According to the media people Leinster House was in a ferment all week

According to the media people Leinster House was in a ferment all week. Yet it would be hard to get that impression from what was actually going on. It was as quiet a restart as Drapier can remember. Wednesday night was eerily quiet and things livened up only marginally for Thursday's vote on the Ansbacher names.

There was never any doubt about how the Independents would vote. In spite of all the media hype, Ansbacher is not the most pressing issue on the agendas of those who send Harry Blaney, Tom Gildea or Jackie Healy-Rae to Leinster House. Michael McDowell's advice was enough to keep them on side and will continue to do so for the duration, however long that may be.

The nurses' strike is a different matter altogether. Should there be a Dail vote on this issue the pressure on the Independents will be intense. There are nurses in every parish in Donegal, Wicklow and Kerry. They have husbands, families and friends. Unlike Ansbacher they are not shadowy figures but real people who can wield real electoral clout, and it is this issue rather than Ansbacher which is the nightmare for this Government.

On the surface this is a stable Government. But, as Drapier has warned more than once, issues can come out of the blue with the capacity to shatter that stability. Most people felt the nurses issues had been fully settled - certainly the Government did - but suddenly it all goes wrong, and on an issue which exposes the Independents at their most vulnerable.

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The blunt fact is that for the Government to lose on a major public pay issue would amount to a loss of confidence and lead to a general election.

Whether the Opposition parties would fancy fighting an election on an issue of this sort is another day's work. Drapier suspects not.

This is a question the Opposition parties will have to work out for themselves, but Drapier's point is more central. It is that the political fault line determining the future of this administration is much more likely to be that of nurses' pay than Ansbacher.

Before turning to Ansbacher let Drapier mention the Public Accounts sub-committee. Jim Mitchell has quite simply played a blinder. The man has been in intense pain during much of the time and is now in hospital recovering from a back operation. Yet he soldiered on and the hearings have been as efficient as they have been effective.

When the full story of this saga is written, we may learn of some of the behind-the-scenes tactics used to attempt to collapse or unduly delay the hearings. One attempt in particular deserves mention, but Drapier is not in a position to say any more at this stage. The important point is that Jim Mitchell and his committee called the bluff of the bluffers and the hearings continued.

It's hard to resist the view that some of our leading financial institutions and their advisers utterly underestimated the PAC. They underestimated the stamina of those involved, their persistence and their professionalism. And it showed in some of their performances.

The contrast between the efficient, focused approach of the PAC team and the farcical shambles in Guernsey all week could hardly be more pointed. Drapier is not blaming Judge Flood. The insistence of the media that the health of an 82-year-old, and a very ill man at that, has less importance than their constitutional rights struck most people in here as an instance of people losing the run of themselves, but one way or other we are looking once again at a process in real trouble.

Jim Mitchell's committee has told us more in four weeks about our financial institutions and their regulators than ever featured on an MBA course. We have seen people who regarded secrecy and unaccountability as a God-given right, and what emerged has not always been a pretty picture.

For many years we have talked about an effective committee system, and a good deal of progress has been made over the past decade. Now Jim Mitchell's committee has moved that process along in quantum terms. And this has happened in large part because of the quality of his committee.

Pat Rabbitte we expected to be good, but he is even better than that. People who know Sean Doherty were not surprised at how good he is proving to be. Doherty has one of the sharpest brains and the knack of asking the embarrassing question the witness does not want asked. Bernard Durkan is dogged and persistent with great common sense, and withstood the clumsy attempts to scupper his position through the leaked ACC documents. Sean Ardagh has the advantage of being an accountant and uses his skills to good effect.

So, all in all, it has been a good team effort, but don't tell that to the top dogs in ACC, NIB or AIB. Or in the Revenue for that matter.

And so to Ansbacher. Mary Harney did a great job in persisting in getting the report completed. The team of inspectors led by Declan Costello is top-notch. So far so good. But in Drapier's view it is now all starting to go wrong.

It has gone wrong largely because of the selective leaking of names. Drapier has no doubt, nor does anyone else in here, that the leaking was politically motivated and done deliberately, in part to score political points and in part to muddy the waters. And if he had any doubts about this, he only had to observe one or two handlers strutting their stuff on Wednesday afternoon.

Leaking of this sort is a serious matter, and John Bruton has a point when he asks for a Garda investigation. He may even get it, but we are unlikely to see a repeat of the enthusiastic tipping off of the media by gardai before their dawn raid on the eve of the presidential election.

It is now a matter of urgency that those whose names are on the list be told and given the reasons they are on the list, so that they either can explain, if there is an explanation, or face the consequences. It is as important that innocent people not be smeared as that those with cases to answer be made to answer.

Finally, this week the upcoming by-election. Two of the three candidates selected so far are newcomers. Dr Mary Upton has plenty of political experience and was an important part of her late brother's election team. She is a strong candidate and will start favourite. Michael Mulcahy has been over this ground a few times already and for him the stakes are high. Fine Gael's Catherine Byrne is a newcomer but is well rooted in her area and has already made an impression.

It's early days but Drapier will be reporting back from the doorsteps of Harold's Cross, Crumlin, Templeogue and the inner city. Don't place your bets yet.