Senator George Mitchell has sounded his most pessimistic warning about the prospects of his review breaking the impasse over IRA disarmament and the formation of an executive.
Senator Mitchell told an audience of bankers in Dublin yesterday that the peace process was under great stress. "There is a very real threat of it not proceeding," he said at the annual Central Bank conference.
The main parties involved in the deadlock, the Ulster Unionist Party (UUP) and Sinn Fein, agreed with the Mr Mitchell's analysis.
Senator Mitchell reasserted that there was no realistic alternative to the Belfast Agreement but warned there was no guarantee of the current review - of which he is chairman - resolving the differences over IRA arms and the executive.
"The whole process is under great stress," he told the conference. What would follow if the agreement and the peace process failed "would be entirely unpredictable", he said. "There is no credible alternative to the Good Friday agreement. If it is not implemented I think the people in Northern Ireland face a highly uncertain future."
He was equally sombre when speaking to reporters after delivering his address. "I think it is beyond dispute that the peace process is under stress. The outcome is not assured," he said.
His review, now in its fifth week, was entering its "more intensive and final phase". Against speculation that Senator Mitchell might set an end-of-October review deadline he repeated that there was a time-limit for the initiative.
"I haven't set a specific time, but I don't intend this to be an open-ended process. And the result is not yet assured. I hope to have a good result but I cannot say to you that the parties have so far indicated that they can reach agreement," he said.
Asked were there any indications of Sinn Fein and the UUP reaching agreement he replied, "No." But he added that a deal could yet be achieved.
"I believe it can be done. I believe that the people want it to be done but I am not in a position to conclude that the result is assured. We're going to do the best we can to try to achieve that result. But it is certainly not assured as of this time."
It was a mistake to consider the review as a process merely involving the UUP and Sinn Fein, he said. "It clearly involves all of the pro-agreement parties. They're essential to this process as well as the governments." Later yesterday Senator Mitchell returned to Stormont for a further round of talks. Mr Martin McGuinness, Sinn Fein's chief negotiator, after meeting the smaller parties said it would be a disaster if the review failed.
"If at the end of the process we have not moved forward to implement the institutions then the Good Friday agreement would be finished. In my opinion that would be an absolute and total disaster."
The UUP leader, Mr David Trimble, after holding a "useful" meeting with the SDLP under the auspices of Senator Mitchell, agreed the process was under stress. But he said there was still hope for the review.
"I noticed the eagerness with which some people try to write finis to this operation. I haven't done that yet and I'm not thinking in those terms," Mr Trimble said.
The SDLP deputy leader, Mr Seamus Mallon, also agreed that the process was under strain. "One could say that things are pretty grim," he said.
"But we should not lose hope, and believe that when all of the political parties look at the alternative, the alternative is even more grim, more uncertain, and more unmanageable than the workings of the agreement that we decided upon on Good Friday," Mr Mallon added.
Senator Mitchell flew back to the US last night and will return to Belfast on Tuesday to resume his review. With the weekend UUP annual conference then concluded it is expected that the process will be stepped up.
Mr Nigel Dodds, a senior DUP Assembly member, said the review was "going nowhere" because the Belfast Agreement "has lost the overwhelming support of the unionist community".
"Any process which is based on moving forward on the basis of support only of a majority of nationalists is bound to fail and cannot be sustained as a viable way forward," said Mr Dodds.
"The broken promises and pledges of Tony Blair and David Trimble have resulted in rank-and-file unionists not being prepared to accept anything less than concrete movement on the part of those who were supposed to enter into serious commitments as part of the process.
"So far it is clear that IRA-Sinn Fein intend pocketing the concessions and giving nothing in return."
