For Fianna Fáil the constituency of Cavan-Monaghan is very much a tale of two counties, where the party has experienced the best of times and the worst of times in recent years.
The best of times have been in Co Cavan, where it has maintained its vote at close to 50 per cent in local and national elections. Monaghan, however, has been a disaster for Fianna Fáil, where it suffered an SDLP-like collapse in support in the face of a Sinn Féin onslaught. During the last local elections it came third behind Sinn Féin and Fine Gael with less than 30 per cent of the vote.
In Election 2007, because Ceann Comhairle Rory O'Hanlon returned automatically to the Dáil, Cavan Monaghan becomes a four-seat constituency.
In theory, this should be good news for Fianna Fáil. In a rural four-seat constituency that has done well out of the economic boom, it should be able to take two seats, even if its vote drops below 40 per cent. When O'Hanlon, normally a Fianna Fáil member, is added, this would mean an effective gain of one seat for the party.
Five days out from polling day however, that appears a remote possibility, and Fianna Fáil has only itself to blame. Because it is reduced to four seats for the election, Cavan-Monaghan will have one of the highest quotas in country - about 13,000.
Sinn Féin TD and the party's leader in the Dáil Caoimhghín Ó Caoláin is expected to repeat his 1997 and 2002 performances by topping the poll, and is likely to come close to a quota on the first count.
Fianna Fáil should take solace in its candidate in Cavan, the Minister of State for Agriculture Brendan Smith, who can be expected to perform very well. The only concern for Smith is that potential supporters see him as safe, and vote for another candidate. If he can combat this, he is likely to come in a close second on the first count.
It is the last two seats where the uncertainty lies. In 2002, despite the fact that Fine Gael had nearly a quota between its two Cavan-based candidates, it still managed to lose a seat to independent Monaghan hospital candidate Paudge Connolly.
This time it is running just one candidate in the Cavan end of the constituency, councillor Joe O'Reilly. O'Reilly is based in Baileborough in the east of the county and will be relying on strong support from his Fine Gael organisation if the party is to maintain and increase its vote. In which case he is likely to come third on the first count with sufficient votes to stay ahead in subsequent counts and get elected to either the third or final seat.
The fourth seat will likely be a dogfight between sitting Fine Gael and Monaghan-based TD Seymour Crawford and the Fianna Fáil Monaghan candidate Margaret Conlon. Sitting independent TD Paudge Connolly, who was elected on the Monaghan Hospital issue in 2002, is not expected to poll enough votes to be in with a chance of the last seat.
Fianna Fáil also stands to be damaged again by the ongoing issue of the future of the hospital.
There is also a fractured local organisation in Co Monaghan combined with a poor handling of the candidate selection process by the party headquarters. It resulted in the selection, two months ago, of a relatively unknown candidate to stand in the Monaghan end of the constituency, teacher Margaret Conlon.
Conlon needs a huge effort from the local Fianna Fáil organisation to secure the seat for her, and five days out from polling day the evidence is that this support has not yet materialised. It means Crawford, who has worked hard and enjoys a strong north Monaghan base, should take the final seat.
It would be unwise however, to rule out Green party candidate Vincent P Martin, who is a popular figure in Monaghan. It is very much an outside chance, but he is likely to poll quite strongly, enough to damage the chances of Connolly and Conlon.
Verdict
FF- 1, FG - 2, SF - 1
Gain for Fine Gael at expense of Independents