KENYA: Mr Moi's choice of successor has sparked a rebellion within his own ranks. Declan Walsh reports from Nairobi.
Traditionally in Kenya, Moi Day is about power. President Daniel arap Moi makes a bombastic address before a crowded stadium, broadcast live on state television. He waves his rungu, a golden club. Army jets scream overhead, flying in formation. The president may pardon a few thousand prisoners from the nation's stinking jails. The crowd cheers loudly.
This year it was very different. There were no rallies or fly-bys last Thursday. Instead, the 79-year-old president quietly visited an upcountry school for the disabled. Meanwhile the rest of the country, off work for the day, huddled around beer and nyama choma (grilled meat) to debate Kenya's fast-moving political revolution.
After 24 years in power, Mr Moi is facing his greatest crisis since an attempted coup in 1982. He intends to step down at elections promised for December, but his choice of successor has sparked a rebellion within his own ranks and gripped the nation.
Mr Moi wants Uhuru Kenyatta, son of independence leader Jomo Kenyatta, to take his place. But although Mr Kenyatta is an educated man with impeccable pedigree, he is a political novice. The nomination has split the ruling party down the middle and raised suspicions across the country, even in Mr Kenyatta's home town of Thika.
Last Thursday Mr Eric Kingori nursed a Tusker beer in the December Hotel, the town's main talking shop. He said he would support Uhuru. "He is a young and energetic man. He is rich already so he won't be interested in corruption. He has risen above tribal issues. He's got everything."
But his companion, striking teacher Kephas Njuguna, wouldn't hear of it. "No, no, no!" he burst in, waving his glass "He's a puppet. Everybody can see Moi is just behind him."
Only a few months ago, victory for the ruling Kenya African National Unity (KANU) party at the December poll looked assured. Mr Moi, one of Africa's last "Big Men" rulers, could look forward to a retirement package including a 12-bedroomed mansion, swimming pool, tennis court, seven cars and 37 workers.
Mr Moi had achieved his apparently unassailable strength by ruthlessly manipulating divisions among Kenya's 42 tribes. The result has been the transformation of Kenya politics into an ideas-free zone dominated by tribally based leaders.
Today, all bets are off. KANU is tearing itself apart over the Kenyatta nomination, and the tribal faultlines are falling away rapidly. Senior figures, headed by the sober Vice-President George Saitoti and wily secretary general Raila Odinga, have formed a protest clique known as the "Rainbow Alliance".
They say Mr Moi is trying to foist Mr Kenyatta on them as a candidate. In defiance of him - a previously unheard of concept within KANU - they say they will nominate their own candidate.
For many, "Project Uhuru" smacks of power being handed from one self-interested dynasty to another. Mr Kenyatta is principally a businessman. He made his money from a vast empire ranging from safari camps to flower farms and the only time he stood for election, in 1997, he failed.
But a year ago Mr Moi plucked him from the obscurity of a provincial party post, appointed him first an MP, then as minister and finally as presidential candidate. It could be a move he will regret.
For the opposition, Mr Moi's miscalculation is a gift from heaven. Until recently hopelessly divided, they have united behind a single candidate - Mr Mwai Kibaki - and their chances of election victory have never looked better.
The spirit of revolt has swept across the country. A week ago Kenyans were stunned to see the president struggle to contain a political rally in his home town of Eldoret. Placard waving crowds jeered and heckled him as he explained his preference for Mr Kenyatta, forcing his bodyguards to draw their guns at one point.
Other groups are becoming courageous - teachers have been on strike for three weeks - while on Wednesday lawyers deserted their courtrooms in protest at a crude attempt to block reforms of the corrupt judiciary.
The Rainbow Alliance upped the stakes yesterday. Mr Odinga announced it would boycott a KANU nominations meeting scheduled for Monday, and holding a rival rally in the city centre Uhuru Park instead.
After years of political stagnation and economic decline, Kenya appears to be entering the period of greatest change since independence. But past elections have been marred by skulduggery and this one may be no different.
The United Nations warned staff to stay away from central Nairobi at the weekend due to a "high" likelihood of violence.
"People can see the light at the end of the tunnel," said political scientist Mr Mutahi Ngunyi. "They think it is hope for change. Then again, it could also be an oncoming train."