Analysis:When it comes to forming a new administration, the Taoiseach looks to be in pole position, writes Stephen Collins, Political Editor
Bertie Ahern has two clear options for the formation of his third government. He can attempt to continue in power with the two Progressive Democrats survivors, underpinned by a deal with at least three of the five Independent TDs, or he can do a coalition deal with the Green Party.
There exists a third possibility, favoured by many in the media, of a coalition deal with Labour despite the fact it has again been ruled out by Pat Rabbitte. In any case there are few takers for it in Fianna Fáil, given that it would mean losing four or five cabinet posts.
Enda Kenny has still not thrown in the towel, as he has a theoretical chance of winning the vote for Taoiseach if the five Independents and the two PDs row in behind him. The Fine Gael leader was much closer to winning power than he has been given credit for and, with just two or three more seats, the alliance for change could have made it into government, despite the strong Fianna Fáil performance.
However, the failure of Fine Gael and Labour to win a couple of vital seats made all the difference and it has left the initiative with the Taoiseach.
Ahern has been open about the fact that his preferred option is another deal with the PDs and "like-minded" Independents. There could be a bit of bluffing involved in an effort to put pressure on the Greens and make them moderate their demands concerning what they might want in a programme for government.
However, the Taoiseach demonstrated in 1997-2002 that it is possible to run a stable government for five years with a wafer thin majority based on the support of Independents. Two of the five Independents are former members of Fianna Fáil and are expected to jump at the opportunity of being welcomed into the family embrace.
Beverly Flynn was a TD until she was expelled from the parliamentary party three years ago after losing her costly libel action against RTÉ over its reporting of the NIB affair. Jackie Healy Rae was a party councillor and, more importantly, he was one of the Independents who kept Ahern's first coalition in office so he knows what the business of government formation is all about.
The difficulties arise in getting another Independent or two to support the cause. Michael Lowry's heart is with Fine Gael but he has indicated that if Mr Kenny can't make it he will be prepared to support a government in the interests of stability. He will want a deal for North Tipperary but there will be some doubts in Fianna Fáil about his long-term loyalty.
The two Dublin left-wing Independents, Tony Gregory and Finian McGrath, are also in the frame for a deal.
Gregory did his famous deal with the late taoiseach Charles Haughey in 1982 and he abstained in order to allow Mr Haughey become taoiseach again in 1987. He shares a constituency with Bertie Ahern and the intense competition for votes has ensured there is no love lost between them.
Gregory has the experience to manipulate his pivotal position to best effect, and there is some speculation in Fianna Fáil that he could be offered a junior ministry or even the post of Ceann Comhairle in a bid to tie him in securely. Gregory has been a TD since 1982 and he might relish the prospect of ministerial office if it is for a clearly defined portfolio in which he has a public interest, like drugs or housing.
McGrath, who has campaigned on disability issues and for a new Stardust inquiry, has said he would be open to doing a deal with Fianna Fáil or with the Opposition block on the right terms. He pulled off the difficult feat of winning a race in a three-seat constituency, and will not relish an early election so an arrangement for stable government would have obvious attractions if he could win real concessions on issues of concern to him.
If Mr Ahern can line up at least three of the Independents he will then be in a position to approach the PDs to ask them to join a new coalition. With just two TDs left the party will be in a poor bargaining position but Mary Harney has made it clear that she wants to continue as Minister for Health to finish off the job she started.
The expectation is that Ahern will offer her health and in those circumstances it would be surprising if she did not accept. The two of them have known each other since 1977 and they have worked well together in Government, in spite of occasional problems.
The Fianna Fáil leader is likely to throw in a few sweeteners such as resources to employ advisers and a couple of Seanad seats to keep the PDs on board.
While the Taoiseach has spoken about the PDs and Independents as his first option he has also spoken about the need for stability. The question is whether he will get what he regards as a stable administration through a PD/Independent arrangement. If he is unable to get that he will turn to the Greens.
The party is clearly interested in going into government and may never get as good a chance again. The Green leadership met in Dublin yesterday to consider the options facing the party and announced later that it would take soundings over the next few days.
"We want a responsible, stable and effective government and at this stage we are ruling nothing out," the party leader Trevor Sargent said later.
Although he said before the election that he would stand down as leader if his party decided to go into office with Fianna Fáil he never ruled out such a coalition.
It was notable that Mr Ahern chose to emphasise yesterday his commitment to environmental issues and to dealing with the problem of energy supply in the future. These are core issues for the Greens and the ground is clearly being prepared for a Green-tinted programme for government if it is required.
While some senior Fianna Fáil figures regard the Greens as "flaky", not all Ministers share this view and if a deal is necessary it will be done.
If there are problems getting enough Independents on side the Taoiseach might consider an arrangement involving the PDs and the Greens. Neither of the smaller parties would be likely to balk at the idea, although it would involve Harney continuing in Health.
The third option facing the Taoiseach is an attempt to form a coalition with the Labour Party. While stability would be guaranteed, Labour leader Pat Rabbitte has received an electoral mandate to put Fianna Fáil out of office and appears in no mood to change his mind.
While some of his TDs would relish a chance of getting into office they are not really in a position to force his hand.
The other side of the coin is that Fianna Fáil would have to give away four or five cabinet posts to Labour and they will not be inclined to do that when they can win power by giving away fewer through another arrangement. The Cabinet will meet on Wednesday and by that time soundings will have been made and the picture will be a little clearer.
The final possible option is that Enda Kenny might be able to pull off a repeat of 1948 and get elected to the Taoiseach's office, in spite of the assumption that Fianna Fáil have it in the bag. Getting the support of all five Independents and the two PDs would be necessary, as Fine Gael has ruled out Sinn Féin.
Kenny would have to be prepared to leave Harney in Health to continue her policies and that is something his Labour partners would find difficult to swallow. In any case getting a stable government out of the mix would be difficult. A big difference with 1948 is that Fianna Fáil refused to contemplate coalition on that occasion so all other parties were forced together. This time around the ball is in Fianna Fáil's court as the biggest party.