Mugabe faces stronger opposition after defeat

President Robert Mugabe of Zimbabwe is putting a brave face on the worst political defeat of his 20-year rule, but alarm bells…

President Robert Mugabe of Zimbabwe is putting a brave face on the worst political defeat of his 20-year rule, but alarm bells are ringing in the corridors of power.

In uncharacteristically humble style, Mr Mugabe promised to respect "the will of the people" after a referendum on a new constitution produced a 55 per cent vote against a document that opponents said would strengthen his already considerable powers.

Many political analysts see the defeat as a vote of no confidence in Mugabe's government, which now faces a hard fight in general elections due in April.

"He is sounding conciliatory, not because he has suddenly discovered that there is room and merit for this in the rough and tumble of politics, but because he is stunned at the implications of this defeat," said Mr Masipula Sithole, one of Zimbabwe's leading political analysts.

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The Zimbabwean leader had campaigned hard for the new constitution, which would have strengthened the powers of the presidency and given the government the right to seize white-owned land without compensation. He knew the referendum was a crucial test of popularity between his administration and a surging new opposition party, the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC).

"By winning the referendum, the opposition has won a big psychological battle. It has destroyed the myth that Mugabe is invincible . . . and they can build on that advantage in the elections," Mr Sithole said.

Mr Mugabe has called his ruling ZANU-PF party's policy-making central committee to an emergency meeting tomorrow to discuss political strategy and the general election, in which it faces its toughest electoral contest since taking power 20 years ago.

Political analysts, including Mr Alfred Nhema of the University of Zimbabwe, say his referendum defeat may persuade Mr Mugabe to postpone the parliamentary elections to June or even October - the longest delay he can legally order.

Until now Mr Mugabe - whose own job is not an issue as his current six-year presidential term runs until 2002 - has insisted that the five-yearly parliamentary polls will be held on time by mid-April.

The MDC, which was the main force behind the National Constitutional Assembly (NCA), a coalition of civic and opposition groups that organised the No vote against the draft constitution, alleges that ZANU-PF wants "early and chaotic" elections to allow it to manipulate the outcome.

ZANU-PF has always denied it rigs elections and is fighting charges that the government's recent award of big rises in salaries and allowances to civil servants, soldiers, traditional chiefs and village headmen was a vote-buying ploy.

Many Western donors, including the IMF and the World Bank, have suspended their aid programmes, mostly over economic mismanagement and Zimbabwe's costly involvement in the Congo war.

In a blistering editorial ahead of the referendum entitled "In God We Trust," Zimbabwe's independent Financial Gazette said a vote against the new constitution was a vote against misrule.

"In overwhelmingly rejecting the draft constitution, Zimbabweans will be forcefully stating that they have had enough of being dictated to by a group of people who believe the country owes them a living."