The Stormont multi-party talks are running into problems of credibility. The failure of the leaders' group to reach agreement on the core issues this week was well forecast, giving the great and the good ample time to prepare their messages of resolute optimism afterwards.
But the fact remains that the new format failed to achieve its objective within the stated time. Likewise, the previous format of breaking the talks down into intensive bilaterals also proved a failure.
The talks may be bogged down like a German tank outside Stalingrad but the good news keeps coming in from other fronts. The meeting between the British Prime Minister and the Sinn Fein delegation last week was generally regarded as a success. It appears Mr Blair found his visitors quite fascinating: it would certainly have been different from meeting Labour councillors from Hackney.
Likewise, Mr John Hume and, after him, the Taoiseach, had successful meetings with President Clinton. Early next month we will see Senator Edward Kennedy on a visit to Northern Ireland with stops at Derry and Belfast.
The relationship between Mr David Trimble and Mr Ahern, which began in London, has already survived its first crisis in the wake of the Andrews interview. Insiders say the chemistry between the two men was good, with Mr Ahern making an impressive attempt to allay the fears of unionists about Dublin's real intentions.
An initiative within the talks to "move the process forward" ended in failure. The SDLP and the Ulster Unionists agreed what was described as a "very anodyne" list of core issues. It was a synthesis of a list presented by the chairman, Senator George Mitchell, which in turn was based on papers submitted by all the parties except the UUP.
Despite its perhaps understandable impatience, the SDLP would, in retrospect, have been wiser to ensure backing by Dublin for the joint list. The time may come when Dublin turns its back on Sinn Fein, but to do so at this time would have placed the whole process in jeopardy, or so Dublin sources believe.
So the SDLP found itself on its own on the nationalist side. The denouement on Monday night found it and the UUP sniping at one another over alleged bad faith. UUP sources claimed that when push came to shove, only Mr Seamus Mallon was prepared to stand by their earlier deal. There was angry SDLP reaction to this and outright rejection of suggestions in some quarters that Mr Hume had been less enthusiastic about the initiative.
An almost relentlessly positive message has been coming from the Dublin direction about the turn of events. But the public will have to see some concrete results from the Stormont deliberations soon.
Although no agreement was reached, there was "teasing out of issues", Government sources said. Pushing for agreement at this stage was going beyond what the market would bear. "There may have been an assumption on the part of some that things could go further than in fact they did."
The problem as Dublin sees it, as outlined by the Minister of State for Foreign Affairs, Ms Liz O'Donnell, at a press conference on Monday night, was that even trying to list heads of agreement inevitably draws you into issues of substance.
Be patient, say talks insiders. Most of the advances in these negotiations are likely to be achieved in the final stretch. "Once you get people in the mood to do a deal, anything becomes possible."
The apparent reluctance of the UUP to commit itself to anything on paper is being attributed to fear of Dr Paisley and Mr McCartney on the outside, but perhaps more importantly to potential dissidents inside the party. Memories of the dread fate of Lord O'Neill and Brian Faulkner are still fresh. Sources say the UUP leaders want to ensure that the Christmas skewer is in the turkey, not in themselves.
Such is the tentative choreography of peacemaking, or perhaps mere political survival in Northern Ireland today. Now it is believed that the UUP has problems with the dates set for the transfer of the talks to Dublin and London in the new year - an idea the party is not particularly keen on anyway.
The Sinn Fein view is that the party will not block the inclusion of any item on the agenda by another party provided republicans' own concerns are addressed. It is understood that these included prisoners, demilitarisation, the "equality agenda", executive powers for cross-Border bodies, and issues of sovereignty and Britain's constitutional claim to the North.
Mr Ahern has praised Mr Martin McGuinness, Sinn Fein's chief negotiator, for stating that despite the party's opposition to a Northern assembly, the item could be included on the list, provided Sinn Fein's own suggestions were also incorporated.
However, insiders claim Sinn Fein highlighted the issue of an assembly as a form of retaliation for being left out of the SDLPUUP arrangement. Besides, it would have caused serious problems among republicans on the ground if the final list included an assembly but left out, say, equality and demilitarisation.
On the other hand, it can be imagined what hay Dr Paisley would have made if the UUP agreed that demilitarisation was a key issue to be addressed in the talks. Insiders believe Sinn Fein can be persuaded to accept an assembly as part of an overall comprehensive settlement and that the party will go on to win a sizeable number of seats in it.
The nervousness of the Ulster Unionists in particular suggests that the parties at Stormont, left to their own devices, will probably never arrive at a settlement. The two governments yet again will have to put their shoulders to the wheel to get the talks out of the mud in January.
Dublin and London will have to remain in the driving seat all the way to a referendum in May.