PAKISTAN:While Pakistan's president retains the backing of the US, a resurgent democratic movement could topple him, writes Laura Kingin Islamabad
When President Perez Musharraf survived back-to-back assassination attempts in 2003, he might have thought the worst lay behind him. But now, after easily quelling any threat to his power during eight years of military rule, the general appears trapped in a labyrinth of his own making.
His attempt 2½ months ago to sideline the country's independent-minded chief justice touched off nationwide protests that have coalesced into a full-blown pro-democracy movement.
Islamist militants have established a firm foothold in the tribal borderlands, and vigilante-style followers of a radical cleric in the capital have been kidnapping police officers and menacing those they consider to be promoting a licentious lifestyle.
Musharraf's supporters are blamed for bloody street-fighting earlier this month in Pakistan's largest city, Karachi, which killed more than 45 people, many of them opposition party workers. And the general's once-polished speeches and public statements have lately taken on a tone that alternates between shrill accusations and near-tearful pleas for understanding.
Long-time political allies are beginning to distance themselves from the 63-year-old Pakistani leader. And although top generals appear to be standing by him, even government ministers are remaining silent in the face of withering criticism of his rule, or offering only a tepid defence.
"His position has become untenable, unsustainable," said author and analyst Ahmed Rashid. "I don't see how he can hang on," said prominent journalist Zahid Hussain.
The choices facing Musharraf are stark ones, analysts say. He could hunker down and try to ride out the current crisis, or move to declare martial law.
He could seek to strike a deal with opposition figures, who are likely to spurn him. Or he could step aside.
Amid the turmoil, the US is increasingly viewed as the main power propping up Musharraf in the face of calls that he renounce his position as army chief, allow the creation of an interim government and call free and fair elections.
Some observers warn that the Bush administration's continuing support for Musharraf at this crucial juncture could threaten long-term US interests in Pakistan, a nuclear-armed state considered an indispensable ally in the fight against Islamic insurgents across the border in Afghanistan.
"There's a huge disappointment over the American position, a real sense that it is a short-sighted one," said Samina Ahmed, South Asia project director at the Brussels-based International Crisis Group.
For the time being, the general appears to retain the backing of his patrons in the Bush administration, with whom he cast his lot after the September 11th attacks. That relationship has been clouded, however, by allegations that Musharraf's intelligence services remain entangled with Islamist militants, including the Taliban.
"Are we pulling away from Musharraf? No," said a US diplomat. "Because that would be pulling away from the government of Pakistan . . . We will not draw away from this relationship."
The conventional wisdom has held that Musharraf is a bulwark against Islamic fundamentalists, and that without him, the country could slide into chaos, creating a vacuum that extremist groups would rush to fill.
But opposition parties insist that free and fair elections could empower a moderate, Western- leaning regime. Islamist parties won only about 12 per cent of the vote in the last parliamentary elections in 2002 and many people believe they would draw less support now.
"There's this perception that if Musharraf goes, in come the Taliban," said Sherry Rehman, a politician with the Pakistan People's Party, the political home of former prime minister Benazir Bhutto, now living in exile. "That's really not the case."
Although they clearly have self-interest at stake, opposition leaders insist that the groundswell of support for chief justice Iftikhar Chaudhry, whom Musharraf is trying to oust, has become a larger renunciation of military rule.
"I see this as a national movement. People with no previous interest in politics are saying to us, 'Keep up the pressure'," said Ahsan Iqbal, a spokesman for the party of former prime minister Nawaz Sharif, who also lives in exile. "Over the past six or seven years, you have had so many drops of water filling a glass, and finally it spills over."
Musharraf derives much of his authority from his position as commander-in-chief, and has resisted repeated calls from domestic opponents and the international community - although not the US - to relinquish his army post. In a BBC interview last week, he described his military uniform as a "second skin" and said he could not imagine giving it up.
Senior army generals have derived enormous benefit from Musharraf's close relationship with Washington and many analysts doubt they are willing to push him aside - at least, not yet. "At the moment, they haven't turned against him. It's too early," said author Rashid.
But there is general agreement that if the senior military echelon were to decide at some point that Musharraf had become a liability, he would have little choice but to go.
"The endgame, whatever it turns out to be, will come from the military," said Hussain, senior editor at the Pakistani magazine, Newsline.
The general's defenders, most of them in senior government posts, insist he retains the support of the people.
"Things are not always as bad as they seem," said minister of state for information Tariq Azim Khan, who also serves as a spokesman for the ruling party. "What is happening is that the opposition parties are using a purely legal issue for political purposes."
Many observers believe Musharraf might have weathered this storm if not for the outbreak of violence on May 12th in Karachi, when Chaudhry tried to travel to the city to address the supporters. Gunmen from the Mutahida Qami Movement, a pro-Musharraf party, blockaded the road into the city and fired on opposition gatherings.
The bloodshed makes it almost impossible for opposition leaders, including Bhutto, to strike any kind of powersharing deal with the general.
And opponents are growing bolder. The chief justice, making his first public statement since the start of the crisis, declared on nationwide television last Saturday that "absolute power corrupts absolutely", an unmistakable swipe at Musharraf.
The president, for his part, continues to make the public rounds, although usually appearing before crowds of hand-picked supporters. At one such appearance last week in the northern town of Mansehra, he appeared sweaty and distraught as he accused opponents of conspiring against him. "It will be a day of supreme grief if these lies and deceptions triumph over truth and reality." - ( LA Times- Washington Post service)