Muted response to new NI constituencies

Gerry Moriarty sums up the proposed reshaping of the North's Westminster constituencies

Gerry Moriarty sums up the proposed reshaping of the North's Westminster constituencies

A reasonable test of the objectivity of the Boundary Commission's proposed reshaping of Northern Ireland's 18 Westminster constituencies can be found in the generally muted response of politicians.

The backroom strategists of Sinn Féin, the DUP, the SDLP, the Ulster Unionists and all the others are carefully going through the proposals to check for booby traps, if the switch of a parish, village or town here or there will affect their overall representation in Westminster or the Assembly, should it ever be reactivated.

The commission decided to keep 18 constituencies with an average electorate of 61,000 in Northern Ireland even though if it were following the average English or Scottish electorate figure of around 70,000 per constituency there would only be 17.

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In the next Westminster election, probably early next summer, Sinn Féin with four seats will try to wipe out the SDLP, which has three, while the DUP, now with six, will try to further deplete the UUP's representation of five.

It is virtually certain that the redrawing of the constituencies won't happen by then.

But even if the new boundaries were to be in place for the next British general election, at first glance the commission's proposals won't confer any great advantage on any of the four main parties.

Keeping the constituencies at 18 also ensures that the third Assembly - if it is ever elected - will again have 108 members, six per constituency.

This could mean that an Assembly member, say, currently sitting in South Antrim or North Antrim respectively could end up in North Belfast or the new proposed constituency of Antrim Coast and the Glens.

The proposals correct a great anomaly where the four Belfast constituencies, each with electorates of around only 50,000, would now increase in size by 8,000 or 9,000. This means that electorally Belfast becomes a very big place as it radiates in all directions to take in the extra numbers.

But at least you would not have the situation where currently the Rev Martin Smyth of the Ulster Unionists represents 50,707 people while the DUP leader, the Rev Ian Paisley, tends to an electoral flock of 70,489.

Under these proposals such imbalances are reduced to 7.5 per cent of the electorate either side of the new average of 61,000.

Accordingly, instead of disparities of almost 20,000, the biggest constituency would be South Down with 65,496 electors and the smallest North Down with 57,435, an acceptable difference of 8,000.

As well as nationalist West Belfast Mr Gerry Adams, in addition to the loyalist Shankill, would have to cater for the needs of more loyalist areas, including some that the Lagan Valley MP, Mr Jeffrey Donaldson, would cede to the Sinn Féin president.

The DUP deputy leader, Mr Peter Robinson, in East Belfast would take some of Strangford, the constituency of his wife, Iris. Mr Nigel Dodds of the DUP would see his North Belfast empire extending into parts of South Antrim, held by Mr David Burnside of the UUP.

South Belfast would also take in parts of Strangford and East Belfast, and again it would seem that unionists would remain in the majority there.

The enlargement of Belfast creates a knock-on effect, most dramatically evident with the disappearance of East Antrim, currently held by the UUP's Mr Roy Beggs but targeted by Mr Sammy Wilson of the DUP.

This constituency moves north, taking in some of the eastern edge of Dr Paisley's North Antrim and changing title to Antrim Coast and the Glens.

Strangford would gain parts of South Down such as Ballynahinch, Killyleagh, Saintfield and Crossgar, while South Down, currently held by the SDLP's Mr Eddie McGrady, essentially would gain the Co Down side of Newry, leaving the rest to Newry and Armagh.

The commission, under such surgery, considered changing the title of Mr Séamus Mallon's Newry and Armagh constituency simply to Armagh, but ultimately decided against.

Mr David Trimble's Upper Bann would lose Craigavon to the Lagan Valley of his rival, Mr Donaldson. East Londonderry would take in parts of Foyle.

Four constituencies would remain as they are, Fermanagh and South Tyrone, Mid Ulster, North Down and West Tyrone.