As Nasdaq's battle for the London Stock Exchange reaches a climax tomorrow with the deadline for shareholders to accept, the LSE's share price suggests the US bourse may fail, analysts said.
Nasdaq Stock Markets, which owns almost 30 per cent of the LSE and is offering 1,243 pence per share or £2.7 billion in total, is due to post the final number of acceptances before 5pm.
Under UK takeover rules the exchange needs to gather 50 percent plus one extra vote from LSE shareholders in total to take control. Analysts and dealers said the closing price ahead of the weekend could signify whether Nasdaq's offer would succeed or fail.
Earlier shares in Europe's biggest share exchange were down 1.6 per cent at 1,262 pence, a 2 per cent premium to Nasdaq's offer.
The shares have steadily crept down from the all-time high of 1,350p struck on January 19th as expectations of a higher bid faded and as signs mounted that increased competition may dent the LSE's revenues.
"But never say never, and of course the lower the price comes to 1243p the higher the probability it will succeed," said Mamoun Tazi, analyst at Man Securities said.
Nasdaq said its offer price also reflected the impact of increased competition from dissatisfied investment banks, who agreed late last year to create a rival trading platform.