New Zealand's centre-right National Party is poised to lead the next government, ending nine years of Labour Party rule, following an election in the recession-hit country tomorrow.
Four surveys in the past 24 hours have shown National with a lead of between 11 and 17 percentage points over prime minister Helen Clark's Labour, which is seeking a fourth three-year term.
Small parties that have pledged to back National, the right wing ACT Party and the centrist United Future, also showed enough support to give a National-led administration a majority.
No single party has gained an outright majority of seats since New Zealand introduced a proportional representation voting system in 1996, meaning the main parties have had to strike deals with minority parties to govern.
The leaders of the two main parties visited shopping malls, street corners, factories and offices in a frantic last minute bid to capture votes.
National Party leader, former foreign exchange dealer John Key, ran into rowdy heckling from Labour supporters at a rally in the North Island provincial city of Palmerston North.
"It's a sign of how strong our campaign is that they are targeting and trying to disrupt ours," he told reporters.
He said polls tipping a National win were "fantastic", but could not be taken for granted.
Key has urged voters to follow the United States lead and bring about change, highlighting his economic credentials as a strength at a time when New Zealand is in recession and facing the impact of the global downturn.
Labour leader Helen Clark toured Auckland saying the response she was getting from supporters was at odds with the polls.
"It's always uplifting to come out and see what people really think at the grassroots," she said.
Both National and Labour are offering similar approaches to coping with the recession and global crisis, with increased spending on infrastructure projects and short-term support for people who lose their jobs.
A Reuters poll of polls gives National an average of 46.6 per cent of the vote, and Labour 33.5 per cent.
To be represented in the 120-seat single chamber parliament, a party must win either a local district seat or at least 5 per cent of the nationwide popular vote.
On the latest polls, National and its committed allies would gather between 62 and 64 seats, Labour, Progressives and the Greens around 54.
The Maori Party is seen holding its current four seats but would not be a decisive factor, while the nationalist New Zealand First Party, led by outgoing foreign minister Winston Peters, would fail to get back into the parliament.
An analyst said Labour was always going to be struggling for a fourth term and many voters had made their decision more than a year ago.
"It's not a recent thing, it's been tracking since the last election, it's got a momentum which has been very hard to stop," said Claire Robinson of Massey University.
In 2005, Labour gained one more seat than National but struck a deal with minor parties to guarantee a majority on budget and confidence matters.
Reuters