Obama’s role in goading participants into a deal seen as essential to the possibility of progress
DIRECT PALESTINIAN-ISRAELI negotiations scheduled to begin in Washington tomorrow are regarded by both sides as the last hope for an Arab-Israeli peace deal. But few Palestinians, Arabs and Israelis believe the talks will result in the emergence of a viable Palestinian state alongside Israel – the minimum demand of the Palestinians and Arabs.
The talks may not carry on beyond the end of the month.
Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas could pull out on September 26th if Israel does not maintain its partial construction “freeze” in the West Bank. This had banned new building, but permitted the completion of 3,000 housing starts in the West Bank, and unfettered construction in East Jerusalem, where the Palestinian majority is rapidly being overtaken by Israeli settlers.
Israeli prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu has, so far, refused to commit to continuation of the limited moratorium, and his cabinet opposes an extension.
If a compromise over settlement expansion is found, the sides will have to address final status issues on which their positions are poles apart: borders, Jerusalem, Israeli settlements, water resources, security, and Palestinian refugees.
Abbas insists the border between a Palestinian state and Israel should follow the line of June 4th, 1967, with minor changes allowing Israel to annex major settlement blocs. Netanyahu, who reluctantly accepted the idea of a Palestinian state, refuses to commit to this.
Palestinians claim occupied East Jerusalem as the capital of their state; Netanyahu insists the holy city will remain Israel’s exclusive, undivided capital.
Palestinians want Israeli settlements dismantled and settlers repatriated. Netanyahu, who has not agreed to halt settlement activity, has said nothing about the evacuation of settlements, and Israel’s 310,000 settlers in the West Bank, with 190,000 in East Jerusalem.
Their presence makes it impossible for the creation of a viable Palestinian state with contiguous territory.
Israel, which controls West Bank aquifers, takes 80 per cent of the water from them, and will find it difficult to share this scarce resource with Palestinians.
While Abbas wants a Palestinian state with all the normal attributes of statehood, Netanyahu argues on security grounds that such a state must not have an army, and that Israel must control its air space and maintain a military presence on its borders with Jordan and Egypt. Abbas says he would accept international peacekeepers on the Jordanian and Egyptian borders of a Palestinian state. Netanyahu insists that there must be an Israeli component.
While convergence is difficult, the sides might manage to reach agreement on Palestinian refugees by accepting they could settle in the Palestinian state. Disagreement could arise if the Palestinians demand that Israel recognise the refugees’ “right” to return to their homes in Israel and agree to compensation in accordance with UN General Assembly resolution 194 of 1948.
Netanyahu is also demanding Palestinian recognition of Israel as a “Jewish state”. Abbas would find it impossible to meet this demand, because it could prejudice the status of the 20 per cent of Israeli citizens who are of Palestinian origin.
After calling upon the Palestinian Authority to bow out of the talks, independent legislator Mustafa Barghouti stated: “Among the many international, Arab and Palestinian officials I met recently, no one expressed even the slightest optimism about the success of the negotiations.”
Arab League secretary general Amr Moussa observed: “We are hoping the talks will succeed, but we are all very pessimistic about the viability of the peace process because of past experience . . . The only reason [for hope] is the sincerity of President Obama and his wish to achieve something good during his presidency.”
