Netanyahu and Likud may profit from Sharon's abrupt departure

DOMESTIC POLITICAL FALLOUT: Ariel Sharon's departure from the Israeli political scene will trigger a leadership contest in his…

DOMESTIC POLITICAL FALLOUT: Ariel Sharon's departure from the Israeli political scene will trigger a leadership contest in his brand new Kadima party and radically alters the prospects of all mainstream parties in March's parliamentary elections.

The centre-right Kadima party that Mr Sharon founded upon quitting the right-wing Likud in November was built entirely around him, and has no constitution, no official candidate list and no grassroots rank-and-file.

With no obvious successor, Mr Sharon's interim replacement is his long-time ally and deputy prime minister, Ehud Olmert (60), who has extensive parliamentary and ministerial experience.

The former Jerusalem mayor does not share his mentor's charisma, electoral popularity or international political weight.

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However, he is the obvious candidate for party members to rally around in the coming weeks. He is also committed to the unilateral approach to the Palestinians which Mr Sharon displayed with last summer's evacuation of the Gaza Strip outside of the framework of peace talks with the Palestinians.

Kadima's other leadership hopefuls include defence minister Shaul Mofaz, who lacks political experience but, as former military chief of staff, shares Mr Sharon's strong security credentials. The hawkish but pragmatic 57-year-old ex-general has leadership ambitions and was a late defector to Kadima.

Shimon Peres, the 82-year-old former prime minister, was ousted as leader of the centre-left Labor Party last November and was lured to Mr Sharon's side with the expectation of a senior post in a future administration.

While he has experience and a strong international profile, he has never quite managed to excite the imagination of voters. The Nobel Laureate pledged support to Mr Sharon as the best choice to lead Israel to peace with the Palestinians, but did not actually join Kadima.

Until Mr Sharon's misfortune, his arch-rival and successor as leader of what is left of the Likud, Benjamin Netanyahu, had been facing humiliating electoral defeat at the head of a marginal right-wing party. However, the ambitious and hawkish former prime minister now has a real chance to lead the country, if he can convince the public that he offers stability and security.

The Labor Party leader and former trade unionist, Amir Peretz (53) will also have to reassert the relevance of his once-mighty party if he is to capitalise on the weakening of Kadima.

The former trade unionist dramatically toppled Shimon Peres to become party leader in November, but has since lost some of his lustre and failed to consolidate a coherent opposition platform.