Constituency Notebook: Fianna Fail, the PDs and Fine Gael are likely to take a seat each in this three-seater, writes Paul Cullen
1997: This constituency did not exist
A brand new constituency, a famous non-candidate and a dog-fight for the last seat - Dublin Mid-West could be one of the more interesting battles in this election.
This is quintessential modern Ireland - vast swathes of new housing, a rural fringe and patches of appalling deprivation.
Most of the 70,000 or so voters live in the north of the constituency, in and around Clondalkin and Lucan. So, not surprisingly, most of the candidates are based in these areas.
An exception is Mary Harney, whose father farmed 40 acres in Newcastle, in the west of the constituency. The PD leader has moved in from Dublin South-West, where she barely scraped in in the last election.
Dublin Mid-West's two-income, commuter-belt housing estates should be more fertile territory for Harney, and most observers expect her to be returned comfortably in this three-seater. The PDs are weak on the ground, but the Tánaiste has managed to combine her official duties with regular appearances at local functions since she opted for this constituency a few years ago.
The best-known politician in the area is Liam Lawlor, but the beleaguered former Fianna Fáil deputy has bowed to the inevitable by pulling out of the campaign. The polls showed he had no chance, though there were signs of growing sympathy for his struggles with the Flood tribunal.
In Lucan, his vote should return to Fianna Fáil, but observers say his support in Clondalkin could go anywhere - or nowhere.
One beneficiary could be another former party member who is under investigation by the tribunal. Colm McGrath - better known as "Mr Insatiable" after Frank Dunlop's evidence in Dublin Castle - claims he is "restricted" by the tribunal from discussing substantial payments he is alleged to have received in connection with land rezoning.
McGrath could still poll well in Clondalkin, where he is a councillor, but is unlikely to feature elsewhere - or in the final shakedown.
The main issues here are infrastructural - roads, traffic, planning. The area has grown so fast that services are struggling to keep up; the schools are bursting, the roads clogged and childcare difficult to find. There is widespread opposition to the planned Outer Ring Road around Lucan, and rezoning is a perennial source of controversy.
There has to be a Fianna Fáil seat, and newcomer John Curran is favourite to take it. A businessman from Clondalkin, Curran has consolidated his presence since taking a seat on South Dublin County Council in 1999.
His running-mate, Des Kelly, is an electrical engineer who moved over from Castleknock to stand in Dublin Mid-West. Kelly earned some invaluable publicity with a recent legal challenge to the fairness of election procedures, but he is unlikely to make a significant impact.
That leaves the last seat. The result here will probably depend on the broader fortunes of the parties during the campaign, but at this stage Fine Gael has to be the favourite.
Austin Currie knows a thing or two about surviving closely-fought election campaigns and has been working hard on the ground. Cllr Therese Ridge is snapping at his heels, though, and could just squeak past her running-mate on first preferences.
The other two contenders for the last seat are Joanna Tuffy of Labour and the Greens' Paul Gogarty. Tuffy, a solicitor whose father, Éamon, ran for the party on previous occasions, has been making quiet progress, though even admirers say she is "too nice for politics".
Gogarty is a new-style Green, the type who has forsaken sandals and oatenmeal jumpers for a business suit. A journalist who is currently concentrating full-time on politics, he has an enthusiastic and well-organised team and ranks as one of the party's better chances of a seat gain.
Tuffy, Gogarty and Currie are all based in Lucan, and one of them will probably prevail. While the Labour and Green candidates will probably benefit from each other's transfers, the seat is there for Fine Gael to win with good vote management.
Other candidates include Andrew McGuinness of the Workers' Party, Tony Flannery of Sinn Féin and David Green, a 21-year-old independent campaigning for cheaper motor insurance for young people.
Prediction: FF 1, PD 1, FG 1