Labour will be under new leadership from next Friday. But the party has yetto reach a conclusion about the direction it wants to take, writes Mark Hennessy, Political Reporter
Shortly after noon next Friday, postal ballot papers will tumble out of boxes in Labour's Ely Place headquarters in Dublin, near Leinster House. By tea-time, and perhaps well before, Labour will have a new leader and deputy leader - elected for the first time in the history of the three main political parties by the ordinary membership, and not by cabals in smoke-filled rooms.
The historic election has not, perhaps, attracted the interest that it might have from the public and a media diverted by the Flood Tribunal, Nice and the row about the Government's election promises.
After weeks of campaigning, most party members agree on a few basic points: Fianna Fáil is bad and not to be touched; Fine Gael is pretty woeful, while they, on the other hand, have great values and, poor dears, are badly misunderstood.
However, Labour has yet to reach conclusions about where it needs to go. Are Sinn Féin and the Greens the biggest threats? Or is Fine Gael's weakness Labour's opportunity? Is Fianna Fáil's underbelly vulnerable?
Privately, many TDs and senior figures see Fine Gael as being ripe for the picking. "They are imploding. Kenny is going nowhere. We could take them out," said one TD.
However, Mary Upton TD views the world differently: "Look, some of the Independent TDs will be vulnerable next time out. Middle-class Greens don't like the Dáil alliance with SF. There are seats there for us to pick up," she said. The targets selected will decide the policy emphasis of the new Labour leadership, even if the broad thrust of the legacy of the outgoing leader, Ruairí Quinn, lives on.
Six months on from the general election, Labour, with 21 TDs, finds itself as the Opposition's third fiddle behind the 22-strong temporary alliance of the Greens, Sinn Féin and most Independent TDs. The loss of second billing during the Dáil's key moments, such as questions to the Taoiseach, clearly rankles, even though the Greens may yet rue the day they linked up with Sinn Féin.
Left in the doldrums, Labour members, more or less, are sure about coalition - sort of. Last year's decision in Cork to express a preference for Fine Gael but not to rule out Fianna Fáil was wrong, most now agree, as the public simply did not believe it.
History, however, is rewritten quickly. The Cork vote was passed by acclamation. The 1992 decision in the National Concert Hall to ally with Fianna Fáil - blamed since as the source of all the party's ills - was backed by 95 per cent.
Throughout Labour's history, strains have existed about coalition: coalition with Fianna Fáil, coalition with Fine Gael, coalition with anybody. "A part of Labour will always be a party of protest," said Senator Derek McDowell, who lost his Dáil seat in May.
For weeks, the leadership candidates, Eamon Gilmore, Brendan Howlin, Pat Rabbitte and Roisín Shortall, along with those in the race for the deputy leadership, have traversed the country to take the party's pulse and, in some places, simply to try and find it.
In the beginning, Rabbitte spat fire and venom towards Fianna Fáil, although by the time he reached Clonmel last Saturday he seemed a little bored. Shortall wanted Labour to stay out of power until it has 40 seats.
Shortall, along with Dublin North East TD Tommy Broughan and Dublin South Central's Mary Upton, are known to Labour insiders as "the Grumblies", though Shortall frequently rails against the charge that she is "a whinger". In her eyes, enemies mistake concern about social justice for complaining. There is little doubt that she represents part of Old Labour, even if it is Dublin-oriented and virulently anti-Democratic Left. "She will surprise people," believes one TD.
However, she exasperates opponents: "Roisín will tell you that we need to be out there getting our message across. That people need to believe us. What the hell does that mean?" said one. However, her 40-seat target is at least clear. DúLaoghaire's Eamon Gilmore is woollier about future coalition options. If Labour grows, he says, the question of coalition partners becomes academic.
Seen as part of the old guard, Howlin, who is deputy leader, has faced the difficult job of standing behind the record of the last decade, and yet promising a fresh new vision.
Although over half of all ballots, and perhaps more, have already been cast, the result is still in doubt. According to polls, and anecdote, Rabbitte has been the favourite since he entered. But Howlin's campaign has gathered pace.
But nobody really knows. Polls track the opinions of voters in general and of party supporters - but not necessarily the changing moods of Labour's 3,800 eligible voters. Most are still thrilled by "one member, one vote" and the freedom to decide the issue. "Now, they are the employers. And they are enjoying it," said Labour's financial secretary, David Leach.
The transfers of both Gilmore, who has established himself with an organisation that hardly knew him, and Shortall, will decide the result, though both insist, publicly and privately, that they can win.
The weeks on the road have taken their toll on the candidates. The highly tipped candidate for deputy leader, Westmeath TD Willie Penrose, was heard to grumble: "There's been too many meetings." Shortly after the Clonmel hustings meeting ended, local Tipperary South candidate, Cllr Denis Landy bustled to ensure that the leading lights walked to the town hall to commemorate Labour's 90th anniversary.
No more than others, Rabbitte wanted to head home. "I'll never make Dublin for nine. I am supposed to be at a reception in the King's Inns," he complained. However, he went to the town hall.
So far, Rabbitte's many supporters have argued that their man is brilliant, possesses a sharp intellect and devastating wit, and is liked by large elements of the media. However, there are brittle sides to his nature, too. He rarely takes contradiction well, let alone criticism, and often finds it difficult to deal with those he deems lesser mortals.
During a Clontarf hustings meeting, he gave out to a female timekeeper for warning that he had only a minute to go in his opening pitch by declaring: "God, I'm glad that I am not sharing a bed with you." The incident resurfaced a week later when it provoked "a blazing row" between Rabbitte and the national chair of Labour Women, Linda Doyle, after a Dublin City Hall meeting attended by 400 Labour members.
Even reluctant supporters - and Rabbitte has many - believe he will put manners in the Dáil on the Taoiseach, who unerringly manages to obscure the clarity of the English language. Others are not so sure. "Trying to land a punch on Bertie is not easy. He never gives a direct answer. He'll wrap his arms around you and smother you. Lots of politicians have tried to take him on, and got nowhere. But all of them tried when Bertie was walking on water. Now he is facing rocky waters, maybe things will be different," said one former TD.
In the early days of the campaign, enemies "reminded" journalists of Rabbitte's acceptance of a donation from disgraced public relations executive Frank Dunlop in 1991. In May 2000, he rejected allegations that he had behaved improperly, and said that he had returned the money to Dunlop after his local organisation asked him to do so.
The issue has not run during the campaign, though it could come back to embarrass him when Dunlop deals with "Payment Number 23" before the Flood Tribunal later this year.
Howlin has, for many, been around too long. And he is physically small, which is a curse in this image- conscious age. Even his friends acknowledge that he can be oftenbe filled with his own self-importance. "But he has learnt a lot from the last few weeks. He has to learn to listen to people more, but he is getting better. And he has amazing energy," said one friend and colleague.
So far, most people believe that Penrose will win the deputy leadership by a cakewalk, having thumped the tables and thundered against Tony Blair's Third Way. "It has gone down well with members, particularly in the rural areas," said one colleague.
Regardless of the choice, the victors must resign themselves to travelling thousands of miles as they seek to rebuild the party before the 2004 local elections. The leadership will have to involve ordinary members, and learn how to campaign in every constituency. None of this can happen without new blood.
Former Leinster European candidate Sean Butler said: "People want to see parties campaign on the streets. Merely attacking the Government in the Dáil for making cutbacks will not get you a vote." Butler's political career to date itself illustrates the problem about new blood, new candidates, and the party's ability to lose some "might-have-been" contenders along the way. In the 1999 European elections, Butler was an unknown, yet he pulled in nearly 40,000 votes. However, he could not build a local base because he was barred by Labour from running in the local elections on the same day. Today, he works for Dell Computers in Bray, Co Wicklow.
Given its tendency to run one-candidate tickets, Labour finds it difficult to refresh the ranks: "Older guys get in, and stay in. Fianna Fáil carries out a cull periodically by running three guys. We're going to have find a way of doing something similar," said one former Labour adviser.