A shifting population has led to the making and breaking of a number ofpolitical careers, writes Mark Brennock.
The stroke of a pen can be a cruel thing for a politician.
Take Fianna Fáil's Donie Cassidy, elected to the Dáil for Westmeath in 2002 after 20 years in the Seanad. Now he faces seeing his home town of Castlepollard moved out of his constituency altogether into the new Meath West constituency. He is likely to struggle to win a seat in either the new Longford-Westmeath constituency or Meath West.
Fianna Fáil's Batt O'Keeffe sees 15,119 people in the Ballincollig area - his electoral base - moved into neighbouring Cork North West from Cork South Central, which he currently represents. If you set out to do him damage, you could hardly have done it better.
Fianna Fáil's John Ellis, currently the sole Leitrim TD in Sligo-Leitrim, sees the county that elects him split in two, with one part joining Roscommon and the other remaining with Sligo. He faces a difficult struggle too.
Throughout the State, sitting deputies see slices of their constituencies where they do well being hived off to others, or in a few cases find themselves competing with other sitting deputies for a reduced number of seats - something like the later rounds of musical chairs. An equally dispiriting experience is that of those who were close to winning Dáil seats and had high hopes for the next election, only to see the areas where they have worked hard for many years divided between two constituencies.
Sinn Féin's Joe Reilly came sixth in the five-seat Meath constituency in 2002. Now Meath is divided into two three-seat constituencies, making it much harder for Sinn Féin. If that wasn't bad enough, Navan, where he is based and has been a councillor for a decade, is set to pass into the new Meath West, while North Meath, where there is a traditional Republican base, goes to Meath East. Suddenly one of Sinn Féin's best hopes for next time has a serious problem.
Constituency revisions have such power to make and break political careers that those adversely affected often believe the government of the day has exerted pernicious influence. Until the 1977 general election, those who believed this conspiracy theory were right.
Traditionally the government parties drew and revised Dáil constituency boundaries with the aim of ensuring they were re-elected next time. This was always a risky strategy, and it backfired spectacularly in the 1977 election.
The then minister for local government, Mr James Tully, calculated that the governing Fine Gael/Labour coalition's strongest support was in Dublin and its surrounding counties. By concentrating three-seat constituencies in the east coast region, he reasoned, the government parties could win two seats in each constituency, reducing Fianna Fáil to one. Meanwhile, by dividing the parts of the State where Fianna Fáil was stronger - particularly the west - into mainly four-seat constituencies, he could keep them to a maximum of two out of four.
In the event, Fianna Fáil won 51 per cent of the vote, enough to win two out of three in the eastern constituencies and to have a chance of three out of four in many other constituencies. The naked gerrymander - which became known as the "Tullymander" - gave Fianna Fáil's its greatest ever Dáil majority of 20 seats. The party had objected strongly to the nakedly partisan constituency revision and stuck to a pre-election promise to set up an independent Constituency Commission, which has operated ever since. Its recommendations have always been passed into law.
While the commission has made recommendations that do great damage to certain individuals, its independence has never been seriously questioned. It must act within clear limitations set out in the Constitution and in the 1997 Electoral Act.
The Dáil must have between 164 and 168 members (it currently has 166). There must be no fewer than one member per 30,000 population and no more than one per 20,000. What's more, this ratio should, "so far as it is practicable", be the same throughout the State. The constituencies should be revised every 12 years, taking population changes into account. Breaching of county boundaries should be avoided "as far as practicable". Geographical features should be taken into account - rivers, for example, can form natural boundaries. The commission must try to maintain continuity rather than simply draw up an entirely new political map.
Yesterday's report contains detailed explanations on how the commission applied these principles.
However, Independent Finian McGrath, whose Dublin North Central constituency loses a seat, said the report was influenced by the Government, and was an attempt "to squeeze out the dissenting voice".
The Green Party didn't accuse the Coalition of exerting influence but said the findings would favour larger parties. They are right on this second point to a modest extent. Five-seat constituencies favour smaller parties and Independents, and there are now two fewer of these. Three-seat constituencies generally favour the larger parties, and there is now an extra one of these.
However, there is no clear pattern showing one party being particularly favoured or disadvantaged. Fine Gael sources said they would hope to make gains from the reconfiguration of north Connacht and north Leinster. But the reduction of Dublin North Central and the failure to add a seat to Dublin West are a disappointment for the party.
Three Fianna Fáil TDs appear to be the worst affected personally, and there is no series of changes bringing any particular benefit to the party.
For Labour there are pluses and minuses. For the Green Party, despite their misgivings, there is relief that the Dublin Mid West constituency of Paul Gogarty TD gets an extra seat, and that Dan Boyle's Cork South Central doesn't lose one. For Sinn Féin the division of Meath is a deep disappointment, while the Sligo/Leitrim changes will not help the chances of former party chairman Mr Seán MacManus.
In its reasonably argued report, the commission has shown it is independent. But if you are a politician who has just seen your political life flash before you, you can be forgiven for not feeling it is fair.