New urgency underpins joint approach on North

JOHN Bruton and Dick Spring hope to meet Tony Blair and Mo Mowlam on Thursday to discuss Anglo/Irish relations and explore the…

JOHN Bruton and Dick Spring hope to meet Tony Blair and Mo Mowlam on Thursday to discuss Anglo/Irish relations and explore the prospects for early developments in the talks process on Northern Ireland.

At this stage, the date remains flexible. But the fact that considerable attention has already been given to such a meeting is indicative of the sense of urgency which underpins Northern Ireland affairs in both London and Dublin.

Time is a wasting asset where the talks process - due to resume at Stormont on June 3rd - is concerned. The pressure is intensified by the approaching marching season and the effect a Drumcree mark Ill could have on intercommunal relations.

The outcome of the British election has deprived the unionist parties of much of their recent influence at Westminster. No longer is the British government dependent on Ulster Unionist votes for survival. With a historic parliamentary majority at his back, Mr Blair does not have to glance over his shoulder when considering his government's best interests in the North.

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The new Westminster configuration does not signal a sudden shift in approach by the two governments or any change in British bipartisan policy. But the emergence of new personalities and a transformed balance of political power will inevitably have an impact on how Northern Ireland affairs are perceived and regulated.

One of the first changes will probably involve implementation of the North report. For the new Northern Ireland Secretary, Dr Mowlam, is already committed to establishing a parades commission with statutory powers by the end of this month. The fact that it may not be fully operational in time for the marching season should not however, detract from its influence in encouraging intercommunal consultation and compromise on contentious parades.

In the wider political context basic negotiating structures are already in place and agreed by the two governments. Political progress will be made on the basis of the Framework Document and a three stranded settlement, underpinned by the Downing Street Declaration. The talks process will proceed according to parameters set out in the Joint Declaration and will reflect the principles contained in the Mitchell report.

As far as the two governments are concerned, the political talks process is the only show in town. They are not prepared to contemplate failure at this stage or to alter terms and conditions already agreed. There is no question of starting again from scratch.

An unequivocal IRA ceasefire will be required before Sinn Fein can enter talks. There will be no softening of this demand on either side of the Irish Sea or in the United States. Politically inspired violence must end in favour of democratic politics.

In that regard, demands from Sinn Fein for recognition of its new "democratic mandate" - as an automatic entry ticket to political negotiations - will be firmly rejected.

The performance of Sinn Fein in the Northern elections has failed to destabilise the commanding positions of both the SDLP and the Ulster Unionists. The two big parties are still in the political driving seat where the talks process is concerned, and pressure to opt for purely democratic methods is expected to intensify on republicans and loyalists.

A suggestion that the IRA may wait until the autumn before calling a ceasefire - after the general election is held in the Republic and the marching season is over - is greeted with the same dismay in official circles that their continuing military campaign in Britain has evoked.

The longer the military campaign continued, one source said, the more inflexible opinion in Britain would become and the more difficult it would be to resolve outstanding difficulties.

Unionist suspicion of the new Northern Ireland Secretary and the Labour government is intense and it will be amplified by the destruction of the Conservatives power at Westminster. The seeds of distrust have been sown by Dr Mowlam's repeated references to the Downing Street Declaration and the Framework Document and by her insistence that "the status quo is not an option".

At the same time, nationalists are worried by the fact that Dr Mowlam and Mr Blair were the chief architects of a new British Labour Party policy which departed from its traditional support for Irish unity. The SDLP will, however, take comfort from the fact that the British Labour Party is its sister party at Westminster.

Just where Northern Ireland comes in Mr Blair's political priorities as Prime Minister has yet to be established. But, given his commitment to the creation of a Scottish parliament with tax raising powers, and to a Welsh assembly, there is a danger that the North could become enmeshed in a much wider agenda of British constitutional reform. Such a development could place a serious brake on short term political progress.

It is to be hoped that when Mr Bruton and Mr Spring meet Mr Blair and Dr Mowlam at the Anglo/Irish summit next week some clarity and direction will be injected into the situation.