Next flu pandemic could kill 5,000, says doctor

The Health Service Executive is hoping most people will be treated in their own homes across the State in the event of a flu …

The Health Service Executive is hoping most people will be treated in their own homes across the State in the event of a flu pandemic.

Dr Kevin Kelleher, director of population health with the HSE, gave details of the plan yesterday and said a helpline would be set up, in the event of a pandemic, to advise the public what to do if they became ill. They would be advised to go to their GP rather than a hospital A&E unit. They would only be sent to hospital if their GP advised this, he said.

The State's pandemic preparedness plan was being updated and antivirals were being stockpiled. They will remain in date for five years, he said.

He was addressing the Joint Oireachtas Committee on Health and Children where members expressed concern that hospitals, with already overcrowded A&E units, would be unable to cope in the event of a flu pandemic.

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Dr Darina O'Flanagan, director of the Health Protection Surveillance Centre, said the system "would be hard-pressed" to cope.

She said it was estimated the next pandemic would kill up to 5,000 Irish people and result in up to 14,000 being hospitalised. But it could be worse. "We won't know until a pandemic actually starts," she said.

It was also predicted that 25 per cent of the workforce would have to take five to eight working days off over a three-month period, she added.

Gavin Maguire, national assistant director of emergency planning with the HSE, said: "We are not going to build extra hospitals in anticipation of a pandemic". Elective admissions would be cancelled to free up beds in existing hospitals.

Dr O'Flanagan said some of the most important things people could do in the event of a pandemic to stop infection spreading was wash their hands frequently and keep their nose and mouth covered. Schools would possibly close.

She added that there was no knowing what would spark the next pandemic, but the H5N1 strain of avian flu in circulation was a candidate.

It was of concern, she said, that despite the culling of million of birds, avian flu had become endemic in parts of southeast Asia and had now reached birds in Europe. Domestic ducks could excrete large quantities of H5N1 without signs of illness, she said.

She explained that avian flu presented with similar symptoms to ordinary flu, but the difference at present was it occurred only in people who had been in contact with infected birds.

"There is always the potential for birds within the next year to bring this virus to many countries," she said.

Some 50 per cent of humans who had become infected with H5N1 had died. It was important antivirals were given within the first 48 hours of onset of illness, she said.

Guidelines have been issued to GPs and A&E units on how to assess people for it. Poultry farm workers across the State have been offered the ordinary flu jab to reduce the possibility they might become infected with it and H5N1 at the same time.

Dr Kelleher said the take-up of it had increased in recent days.