Labour's leadership contest is likely to open up due to the novel method of election, writes Mark Brennock, Political Correspondent.
The Labour leadership campaign has started with all the energy of a slow bicycle race. All possible contenders say that they have been urged by many people to run, and they are now reflecting on this. But none has yet even mounted a bicycle for the race precipitated by this week's announcement by Ruairí Quinn that he is standing down from the leadership.
Nobody will enter the contest lightly. Labour's 3,600 paid-up members are excited by their new power to choose their leader. They will want to meet the candidates, ask them questions and have a drink with them before casting their postal ballots in October.
This will require serious contenders to make nationwide tours of constituency and branch organisations to lobby for support. The exercise may be very good for the party, but it is daunting for any prospective candidate.
Until this week, nobody was sure Ruairí Quinn was going to quit. Now that he has chosen to go, the battle lines are unclear. Talking to supporters of various possible contenders this week it was difficult to discern any clear policy differences. None wished to go on the record, but the main concerns were about style: how the party must present itself over the next five years to allow it to fight not just against the Government but for leadership of the Opposition.
Now the political circumstances present Labour with an opportunity to show more fire and passion than it could prior to the May election. The disgruntled maintain that the possibility then of having to enter government with Fianna Fáil tempered their criticism of the main government party during the campaign. Now there is no such constraint.
Secondly, the cutbacks mode into which the Government is entering gives Labour an opportunity to present its core message: that you cannot have good-quality public services while cutting taxes on everything.
In the absence of any declarations of intent, the deputy leader, Mr Brendan Howlin, has been cast as the early favourite.
However, in the changed mood in the party he will have to cast off his image of being primarily a minister-in-waiting. For Ruairí Quinn led the party into the election on an independent platform, but the media and public perception was that he was campaigning to enter coalition with whoever Labour could make up the numbers with.
Protest voters flocked to Sinn Féin, the Green Party and independents rather than vote for what was seen as a party of government. Howlin, an experienced minister, must convince the membership that he can portray Labour as radical, oppositional and anti-establishment while at the same time leaving the government option open.
It is a stance that Labour has never fully mastered. "When we tie ourselves to Fine Gael before an election, they take our seats," says one frustrated senior figure. "When we leave our options open, we are accused of being mad for power and we lose seats to the Greens and Sinn Féin."
The central point of those who were unhappy with the party's electoral strategy in May is that they could not attack Fianna Fáil strongly enough, particularly on the issue of sleaze. If they could end up in coalition with them, they could hardly condemn them as unfit for power.
Now there is a demand for a strong, full-blooded opposition. There is a universal view in Labour that, with almost five years to go to an election, there is no need to pussyfoot around Fianna Fáil.
One man who cannot be accused of pussyfooting around Fianna Fáil is Pat Rabbitte. Before the election, most Labour figures dismissed Rabbitte's chances of ever assuming the leadership. This week, a number were taking a second look at one of their most formidable public performers, who has that rare combination of humour and political passion.
Pre-election, his handicaps were listed as including a past as one of Labour's most formidable rivals in Democratic Left and his unhappiness with Labour's electoral strategy. Post-election, these handicaps are seen as less important, with his concern about the electoral strategy a positive advantage. "If Pat was leader," said one former doubter yesterday, "we would be unlikely to be accused of going soft on Fianna Fáil."
Should a couple of "old Labour" deputies come out in support of Rabbitte in the coming couple of weeks, he could emerge as a serious contender.
His DL colleague and friend Eamon Gilmore is also seen as a serious runner. A source close to both was dismissive yesterday of the suggestion that they would agree between them on which one would stand. "The idea that a former Democratic Left faction would have some sort of private selection convention is not on," says the source.
Opposition to Howlin may also emerge from a loose grouping of deputies who were unhappy with the party's presentation of itself during the campaign. These include Ms Róisín Shortall, Ms Joan Burton, Mr Tommy Broughan, Dr Mary Upton and Mr Willie Penrose. Dublin North-West deputy Ms Shortall has said she is considering her options and is seen by most party insiders as the strongest candidate from this group. However, Ms Burton may also have ambitions and the energy required to fight such a gruelling campaign.
Several deputies this week mentioned the name of Willie Penrose as a possible contender. The party's Westmeath TD is not a household name among the general public, but he would have significant support among traditional Labour members, particularly outside Dublin. "There is a desire to move away from the Dublin 4 image which the media presents of us, and Willie would certainly do that," says one enthusiast.
Penrose is a bright, hard-working barrister, but without the smoothness of presentation which parties seek in a leader in the televisual age. Ultimately, he may emerge as a serious candidate for the deputy leadership.
The deputy leader will also be elected by postal ballot on the same day as the leader, and there is speculation that one or more two-person "tickets" could emerge.
A contest is not guaranteed, but yesterday most in the party believed that there would be more than one nominee. Nominations open next Wednesday and close a fortnight later. Postal voting will take place throughout October, with the count taking place on October 25th.
If there is a contest, the campaign will exhaust the participants, but most insiders believe it will energise the party so long as it is free of rancour and recrimination.