"It seemed that the security forces were incapable of defeating the Provos." This was the grim conclusion of senior Stormont officials in December 1976 despite the abolition of special category status for paramilitary prisoners and the emergence of the peace people. The North's economy was also in deep trouble, according to confidential government files released today in Belfast.
The issue of special category status dominated several meetings of senior civil servants at Stormont during 1976. At a meeting on March 2nd, the permanent under-secretary at the Northern Ireland Office, Sir Frank Cooper, warned that there were limited grounds for optimism on the security front following the death of IRA hunger striker Frank Stagg in Britain and the ending of special category status for members of the IRA and loyalist groups. In light of Cooper's security assessment, his colleagues discussed "the need to adhere firmly to the decision to end special category status" and to implement measures for the security of government buildings.
W E Bell from the Ministry of Commerce at Stormont referred to the very serious economic situation confronting the province and to the harmful effects of the security situation and the present political instability. The outlook on the employment front for 1976 was very worrying, he said. His department had found it necessary to take a number of unorthodox financial decisions to contain the situation.
By the next meeting on April 6th, 1976, senior officials were told that the economic situation was deteriorating and was likely to become worse with a number of large firms facing a crisis situation.
On July 7th, the Stormont committee discussed the current level of violence under the chairmanship of the new NIO permanent under secretary, Brian C Cubbon. The minutes record the gravity of his assessment: "Any admission by the government that it was unable effectively to reduce the level of violence in the face of increasing threats against community workers and businessmen could be extremely dangerous. It had to be recognised that there was a steady erosion of confidence and a diminution in the stability of society." The permanent secretary at commerce, Mr Bell, referred to press reports of shopkeepers being subjected to financial extortion. It was suggested that these reports emanated from British army sources. (This was to be the last meeting of the committee attended by Mr Cubbon, who was seriously wounded in the IRA bomb explosion which assassinated the British ambassador to Ireland, Christopher Ewart-Biggs, and Stormont official Judith Cook, at Sandyford, Co Dublin, on July 21st, 1976.)
The rise of the women's peace movement, led by Maireád Corrigan and Betty Williams, dominated the committee's agenda on September 7th, 1976. "The emergence of the women's peace movement was a new development which had to a degree overshadowed the activities of the subversives." J D W Janes of the NIO outlined the changes being made in the organisation of the RUC to achieve the switch from army to police control and referred to problems ahead, "particularly the trouble which could arise from cases before the courts where the accused would not be granted special category status".
In the course of the meeting, officials discussed the newly-emerged peace movement and whether, if it showed signs of flagging, it should be allowed to die. It was accepted that it could not be seen to be given overt assistance by the government nor could it by its nature move towards a political stance. The fact was, the committee agreed, that it was simply opposed to violence and had no political connection. If the movement was to live and achieve credibility, there had to be seen to be improvements flowing from it. More importantly, it might act as a catalyst in the generation of "self-help" groups and as a means of getting dialogue started between differing sections. It was agreed that such improvements would cost money and "that the Treasury might be encouraged to adopt a more sympathetic attitude to Northern Ireland".
Roy (now Lord) Mason had been appointed as secretary of state in September 1976 and at a meeting at Stormont Castle on November 2nd of that year, an NIO official explained that Mr Mason intended to concentrate on the economy. At a final meeting of the committee on December 7th, 1976, the pessimism of senior officials at the worsening security situation was clear.