The PDs are anxious to control two of six key departments, writes Denis Coghlan, Chief Political Correspondent
Officials in Government Buildings are already preparing for a long, hot autumn. Just as Fianna Fáil under Bertie Ahern planned meticulously for a successful election campaign, preparations are now under way for the launch of the new government.
As negotiations continue between Fianna Fáil and the PDs, officials are planning to reshape the Cabinet and to put in place an urgent, four-part agenda. Priorities identified for the autumn are: the passage of a revised Nice referendum; getting a new social partnership agreement; revised infrastructural spending under the National Development Plan and preparations for Budget 2003.
All these tasks have a pre-Christmas deadline and the challenges are interlinked and will affect the public's long-term perception of the new government. If the coalition falls at the first fences, its failures will act as a tonic for the opposition parties.
Before the nitty-gritty of those decisions are teased out at Cabinet level, matters like agreeing a programme for government and dividing the spoils of war have to be negotiated. The Taoiseach will not simply divvy up government positions; he will allocate personnel to maximise the chance of being re-elected. Thinking long term is the name of the game.
The need for urgent action on a number of fronts has stacked the odds in favour of some incumbents. Brian Cowen, appointed a negotiator to the inter-party talks, is expected to retain his job as Minister for Foreign Affairs. He knows the EU and the intricacies of the Brussels bureaucracy. He also knows that a second defeat for the Nice referendum on his watch would damage Ireland's national interests and savage his own political reputation.
Micheál Martin is expected to be allowed get on with implementing - as best he can - elements of the Government's 10-year health strategy. Charlie McCreevy is in much the same situation. A Minister who spent too lavishly in the good times, he is now likely to be asked to take corrective action in Finance.
As he moves to throttle back on government spending, the Taoiseach will be at his shoulder, advising on the tactics for benchmarking to secure a public sector pay agreement. For, even if the private sector declines to participate in a new social partnership deal, Mr Ahern will persevere. The report on benchmarking is due by the end of June and will be a springboard for social partnership talks and public service reform.
Mr McCreevy's role will be crucial where increased spending under the National Development Plan is concerned. His election campaign idea of a national development finance agency that can borrow off the balance sheet will require urgent legislation. And if Mary Harney is given control of the proposed department of transport, which will deal with all road, rail, sea and air facilities and traffic, it will be important that she and the minister providing the money get on together.
The task of devising a 2003 budget to reflect the growing gap in the public finances is a poisoned chalice most ministers would not deny Mr McCreevy. New ministers can be expected to fight like hell against cutbacks. Estimates have to be agreed by November, and a budget by early December.
The Department of Justice represents a ticking time-bomb for the new government. And John O'Donoghue wants out. A belated tribunal of inquiry into Garda illegalities in Donegal threatens to send damning indictments right up the chain of command. The courts and legal systems are in desperate need of reform.
Insurance costs, linked to court settlements, must be reduced to protect private enterprise and the consumer. And the PDs espousal of a Garda ombudsman gives Fianna Fáil an opportunity to change feet. Bertie Ahern is keenly aware that the secret of a successful coalition arrangement is a satisfied junior partner.
During the election, however, Michael McDowell seriously upset Fianna Fáil by his Ceaucescu remarks about the Bertie Bowl and by his advice that the senior party could not be trusted on its own in government. Mr Ahern recognises political desperation for what it is, but that doesn't mean he has to forgive it.