The fate of the Nice Treaty is hanging in the balance, according to an Irish Times/MRBI opinion poll, which also shows a dramatic fall in support for the Government, the Taoiseach and Fianna Fáil.
Satisfaction with the Government has plunged by 25 percentage points since May to just 36 per cent, while the Taoiseach's personal rating has fallen 19 points to 51 per cent, the lowest since he became Fianna Fáil leader in 1994.
The Flood tribunal report and the resulting resignation of Mr P.J. Mara as director of Fianna Fáil's campaign for a Yes vote on Nice is likely to have further damaged the Government. Meanwhile, the finding that those dissatisfied with the Coalition are much more likely to vote No will further worry the Yes campaign.
The poll shows that 37 per cent of voters intend to vote for the Nice Treaty; 25 per cent will vote against; 32 per cent do not know how they will vote; and 7 per cent say they will not vote.
This is a narrower margin of support than was shown in a poll just days before the last referendum. That Irish Times/MRBI poll suggested 45 per cent would vote Yes and 28 per cent No, with 27 per cent having no opinion.
However, this margin of support turned into a defeat for the treaty by 54 per cent to 46 per cent. Just 34.8 per cent of the electorate voted on that occasion.
The latest poll was conducted last Monday and Tuesday among a representative sample of 1,000 voters at 100 sampling points throughout all constituencies in the State.
There is a strong correlation in the poll between dissatisfaction with the Government and opposition to the Nice Treaty.
Of the 37 per cent who intend to vote Yes, 46 per cent are satisfied with the Government, 50 per cent are dissatisfied, and 4 per cent have no opinion. However, among the 25 per cent who intend to vote No, 69 per cent are dissatisfied with the Government, just 26 per cent are satisfied, and 5 per cent have no opinion.
Support for the treaty is strongest among Fianna Fáil supporters (49 per cent). It also has the support of 41 per cent of PD voters, 37 per cent of Fine Gael and Labour voters, 18 per cent of Sinn Féin voters and 41 per cent of supporters of Independents and others.
While the Green Party is campaigning strongly for a No vote, its supporters are evenly divided, with 27 per cent in favour, 27 per cent against, 38 per cent with no opinion and 8 per cent who say they will not vote.
Just 16 per cent of voters say they have a good understanding of what the treaty is about; 37 per cent understand some, but not all, of the issues; 26 per cent are only vaguely aware of the issues; and 19 per cent do not know what the treaty is about at all. Two per cent have no opinion.
The anti-immigration stance adopted by some No campaigners is also striking a chord among voters: 44 per cent agree with the statement that the treaty will encourage too much immigration into Ireland; 35 per cent disagree; and 21 per cent have no opinion.
Some 74 per cent of voters accept the argument that Nice will give other countries a chance to join the EU, with just 8 per cent disagreeing and 19 per cent having no opinion. The economic argument - that the treaty is needed in order not to lose foreign investment - is accepted by 50 per cent, with 27 per cent disagreeing and 23 per cent expressing no opinion.
Voters are almost evenly divided on whether the treaty will undermine Irish neutrality, with 37 per cent saying it will, 40 per cent saying it will not, and 24 per cent having no opinion. Some 31 per cent believe it will make abortion more easily available here, 38 per cent say that it will not, and 30 per cent have no opinion.