Triggering the unionist fear factor may be crucial to Jim Nicholson being returned to Brussels, writes Gerry Moriarty, Northern Editor
The Ulster Unionist candidate Jim Nicholson is seeking a fourth term in Europe. In the three previous elections, he was elected in the Rev Ian Paisley's vote-pulling slipstream, and may be dependent on DUP transfers again this time.
Dr Paisley is not running in this election but new candidate Jim Allister is currently favourite to poll ahead of Mr Nicholson. He may even come home first, notwithstanding his repeated warnings that if unionists stay at home Sinn Féin's Bairbre de Brúwill take the chequered flag.
Hence there is little to be gained in Mr Nicholson annoying the DUP too much. Mr Allister in the course of this campaign has felt no such restraint, regularly lambasting both Mr Nicholson and more especially his leader David Trimble on the usual perfidy charges.
Mr Nicholson couldn't resist a little dig however when launching his manifesto at the Ormeau Baths Arts Gallery in Belfast yesterday. "I have met some people," he told us, "who claim to be DUP supporters who said they would prefer to see Sinn Féin elected than an Ulster Unionist." Now that was perfidy. He had no difficulty urging Ulster Unionists to give their number two transfers to Mr Allister but in the light of such comments Mr Allister, who is unveiling his manifesto today, needed to clarify that DUP supporters should transfer to the UUP.
Just as Mr Allister has tried to trigger the unionist fear factor by warning that Sinn Féin could top the poll, so is Mr Nicholson similarly engaged in warning unionists that if they stay at home only one unionist will be returned to join Sinn Féin's Ms de Brún and the SDLP's Martin Morgan.
But it's a real fear as far as Mr Trimble and Mr Nicholson are concerned. Without the big guns of Dr Paisley and John Hume, this election is finding it difficult to kick up even a little steam.
There is a genuine UUP concern that unionists, particularly Ulster Unionists, will fail to turn out on polling day on June 10th.
It seems unlikely that Sinn Féin and the SDLP could take two seats, but with the vagaries of proportional representation allied to serious unionist apathy it is possible. And galvanising the unionist electorate into accepting that possibility is crucial for the UUP.
The DUP is unlikely to suffer to the same extent should unionist electoral ennui be a feature of this election. Which is why Mr Nicholson, while making occasional jibes at Mr Allister, is careful not to jeopardise crucial DUP transfers that he will need to go back to Europe.
With great diplomacy he said: "If I am lucky enough to top the poll I shall be delighted. If I am not number one I will not cry too much about it as long as I am returned, and two unionists are returned to Brussels. That is the bottom line." Mr Nicholson in his manifesto portrays himself as a "Euro-realist", i.e., he could never be a fully-fledged Europhile in the mould of Mr Hume.
He opposes the creation of a European constitution, doesn't want a European super-state, or a European police force or army, but is perfectly happy to see Northern Ireland reap the advantages that are available from Brussels.
He believes the North is doing just fine with sterling, although he acknowledged that there might be some in the party who favour the euro. But referring to the UUP's broad-church nature he added, with rather jocular understatement: "I don't think the euro will be as divisive as some of the other views we have." Indeed, as Mr Trimble standing beside him might have muttered yesterday.