The outcome of the General Election will be determined by nine key constituencies.
Cork North-Central
1997: FF 35.53%; FG 30.16%; Lab 5.27%; PDs 7.51%; GP 3.04%; SF 3.76%; DL 7.15%; NP 2.53%; CS 1.77%; WP 1.24%; Others 2.04%.
Sitting TDs: Dan Wallace, Billy Kelleher and Noel O'Flynn (FF); Bernard Allen and Liam Burke (FG).
Fianna Fail won three in 1997 through remarkable vote management. Repeating the achievement will be difficult. The popularity in the city of the Minister for Health, Mr Michael Martin, should spill over north of the Lee to help the cause. Fine Gael's wily campaigner, Mr Liam Burke is standing down. His replacement on the ticket, Cllr Gerry Kelly, is threatened by former Democratic Left TD, Kathleen Lynch (above), who is now running for Labour.
Prediction: FF 3, FG1, Lab 1. Labour gain from FG
Dublin South-East
1997: FF 25.79%; FG 27.38%; Lab 16.67%; PD 10.97%; GP 11.71%; WP 1.89%; NP 3.19%; SWP 1.12%; NLP 0.63%; Others 0.65%.
Sitting TDs: Eoin Ryan (FF); Frances Fitzgerald (FG); Ruairi Quinn (Lab) and John Gormley (GP).
Michael McDowell's decision to stand for the PDs makes this a fascinating contest. It is difficult to see FF, FG or Labour losing their single seats. Similarly, it is hard to see FF with Chris Andrews or FG with Colm MacEochaidh winning a second. This leaves the final seat between sitting Green Party TD John Gormley (above) and McDowell. Gormley has been a keen constituency worker since 1997. Private opinion polls are believed to have shown Gormley polling higher than McDowell. But this lead is not unassailable, and McDowell's national profile as Attorney General, and his residual support from 1997 will allow him challenge strongly. The high profile contest may end up benefitting both men to some extent, but one is almost certain to lose out.
Prediction: FF 1; FG 1; Lab 1; GP 1. No change.
Dublin West
1997: FF 33.19%; FG 16.94%; Lab 12.11%; PD 7.61%; GP 4.32%; SF 5%; SP 16.21%; WP 2.83%; Others 1.79%.
Sitting TDs: Brian Lenihan (FF), Austin Currie (FG), Joe Higgins (SP) and Liam Lawlor (Ind).
Dublin West has lost a seat, changing from a four to a three-seater since 1997. It has a working-class profile and last time elected Joe Higgins, leader of the Socialist Party, while Labour TD and junior minister, Joan Burton, was defeated.
Sitting FG TD Austin Currie is transferring to Dublin Mid-West, as is the now independent TD, Liam Lawlor - if he runs at all. Cllr Sheila Terry is the FG candidate. FF's Brian Lenihan topped the poll in 1997 and should not have any difficulties this time. Higgins is seen as safe and the third seat looks like being a Labour gain for Burton, who is a better known candidate than FG's Sheila Terry.
Prediction: FF 1; Lab 1; SP 1 Lab gain from FG.
Dublin South-Central
1997: FF 34.43%; FG 24.95%; Lab 10.41%; PD 5.01%; GP 3.95%; SF 4.77%; DL 11.3%; SP 0.81%; WP 0 .73%; SW 0 .54%; NLP 0.23%; Others 2.88%.
Sitting TDs: Ben Briscoe and Sean Ardagh (FF), Gay Mitchell (FG) and Mary Upton (Lab).
Dublin South Central has gained an extra seat and increases from a four to a five-seater this time. FF's Ben Briscoe is retiring and party colleague Marian McGennis is transferring from Dublin Central because of constituency boundaries being redrawn. Sean Ardagh should poll well and the third FF candidate, Senator Michael Mulcahy, has gained good profile from being Lord Mayor of Dublin. FG's Gay Mitchell topped the poll in 1997, but only careful vote management would help elect Cllr Catherine Byrne. There is definitely one Labour seat here, most likely for Mary Upton, elected in a by-election in 1999, rather than Eric Bryne, who ran as a DL candidate in 1997. Aengus O Snodaigh, the Sinn Fein candidate, should poll well and is likely to contest the final seat with Byrne.
Prediction: FF 2; FG 1; Lab 1; SF 1. SF gain.
Limerick East
1997: FF 39.72%; FG 26.51%; Lab 9.19%; Lab 12.42%; GP 1.61%; DL 6.85%; NP 3.08%; Others 0.61%.
Sitting TDs: Willie O'Dea, Eddie Wade (FF), Michael Noonan (FG), Des O'Malley, (PDs), Jan O'Sullivan ( Lab).
There has been a change in the constituency since the last election. Jan O'Sullivan won the by-election caused by the death of the Labour TD, Jim Kemmy. Limerick East was once a PD stronghold, the political base of the party's first leader, Des O'Malley. Peadar Clohessy held a second seat for the party until his retirement in 1997. With Mr O'Malley's retirement, the seat seems lost, despite an active campaign by his cousin, Tim O'Malley, to retain it. This should allow FG's Senator Mary Jackman to join the party leader, Mr Noonan, in the Dail. Last time, the FG vote jumped from 15.61 per cent in 1992 to 26.51 per cent in 1997. Mr Noonan was elected on the first count with 10,092 votes. Next time, he will be contesting the election as a party leader, providing a major boost to the FG vote.
Prediction: 2 FF, 2 FG, 1 Lab. FG gain from PDs.
Dun Laoghaire
1997: FF 25.83%; FG 30.96%; Lab 8.66%; PD 8.55% GP 5.09%; DL 13.89%; CS 3.69%; Others 3.34%.
Sitting TDs: David Andrews, Mary Hanafin (FF), Sean Barrett, Monica Barnes (FG), Eamon Gilmore (Lab)
In 1997 FF did well to win two seats here when newcomer Mary Hanafin joined David Andrews in the Dail. Since then Hanafin has achieved a national profile as a Minister of State while Andrews is retiring to make way for his son, Barry. The two may win roughly equal shares of the party vote, thus ensuring the retention of both seats.
Labour's Niamh Bhreathnach is pushing hard to return to the Dail to join Eamon Gilmore, late of DL. Both FG deputies are retiring, leaving Senator Liam Cosgrave (above) as the front-runner over Helen Keogh on a weakened ticket. The Green Party's Ciaran Cuffe will poll reasonably, but not enough to take a seat. If Patricia McKenna contested the constituency, as rumoured, it would boost their prospects. The PD's Fiona O'Malley has not made the necessary impact.
Prediction: FF 2; FG 1; Lab 2. Lab gain from FG.
Sligo-Leitrim
1997: FF 40.41%; FG, 36.63%; Lab 10.86%; PDs 1.65%; SF 7.10%; CS 3.01%; Others 0.34%.
Sitting TDs: Matt Brennan and John Ellis (FF), John Perry and Gerry Reynolds (FG).
Matt Brennan is retiring, and the second FF seat is under serious threat from the Sligo-based Independent, Ms Marian Harkin (above), who polled impressively in the European elections in Connacht-Ulster. John Perry has broken the FF stranglehold on Sligo, built up by former FF minister and European Commissioner, Ray MacSharry. Despite the controversy over money owed to farmers following the collapse of his meat company, Mr Ellis has a strong party base in Leitrim. Last time, he got 92.6% of the party's vote in the county. FF is running two Sligo-based candidates, Jimmy Devins and Eamon Scanlan, but their combined strength may not be enough to defeat Ms Harkin who, apart from her constituency profile, is something of a national figure. In the past three elections, FF has failed to take a seat in Sligo town, once the MacSharry stronghold.
Prediction: FF 1, FG 2, Ind 1. Ind gain from FF.
Galway West
1997: FF45.94%; FG22.21%; Lab 10.07%; PDs 12.27%; GP 3.44%; SF 2.51%; NP 1.99%; NLP 0.43%; Others 1.14%.
Sitting TDs: Frank Fahey and Eamon O Cuiv (FF), Padraic McCormack (FG), Michael D Higgins (Lab) and Bobby Molloy (PD).
Seeking a third seat FF are fielding an exceptionally strong ticket. Minister for the Marine, Frank Fahey, and Minister of State, Eamon O Cuiv, have highly effective constituency machines. Their third candidate, Galway-based Senator Margaret Cox (above), will run the other three sitting TDs, Padraiic McCormack (FG), Michael D Higgins (Lab) and Bobby Molloy (PDs) very close.
The Higgins seat has never been safe, although transfers from the Greens and SF should keep him in the race. FG had just 1.3 quotas and the party's poor showing nationally will worry McCormack. A local poll showed Molloy losing his seat last week before he confirmed that he would run. The imponderable factor is whether Dana Rosemary Scallan will run.
Prediction: FF 2, FG 1, Lab 1, PD 1. No change.
Laois-Offaly
1997: FF 49.85%; FG 23.38%; Lab 11.61%; PDs 6.51%; NP 1.89%; NLP 0.23%; Others 1.54%.
Sitting TDs: Brian Cowen, John Moloney, Sean Fleming (FF); Tom Enright, Charles Flanagan (FG).
The former IFA leader, Tom Parlon (right), has been chosen by the PDs to contest a seat and will pose a threat to FG's second seat. Tom Enright, a TD since 1969, with the exception of one term, is retiring from politics, and his daughter, Olwyn Enright is trying to replace him. Birr-based Ms Enright faces the biggest threat from Mr Parlon.
Prediction: FF 3, FG 2. No change.