The opposition parties will have to produce something special to dislodge this Government, writes Mark Brennock.
Fianna Fáil's level of support is starting to look like an unshakeable hold over a sufficient number of voters to propel it back to power. On 42 per cent now, it has scored 40 per cent or higher in all nine Irish Times/MRBI polls over the past two years.
With possibly just nine weeks to go to the general election, its support remains strong among most groups and in most regions, particularly in Munster where the result in a number of key marginals may have a crucial impact on the formation of the next government.
On this figure, and if the Progressive Democrats manage to return with the same number of deputies or even lose one, this Government seems set to return.
However, the usual caveats apply. A lot can happen in nine weeks, particularly during the final intensive three weeks of a campaign. Fianna Fáil won a substantial seat bonus last time out through effective vote-management and it will struggle to repeat the performance.
Just a few seat losses will leave the coalition short of the required numbers, even with the support of a few independents.
However, for Fianna Fáil to lose power, it must be replaced by a government led by Fine Gael and on these figures, that just could not happen. Mr Noonan's shockingly low personal rating of 29 per cent is well below the 37 per cent his predecessor John Bruton recorded in the poll that led to the party decision to get rid of him.
It comes after an ardfheis from which the party expected to get a boost, as well as a solid performance during the abortion referendum campaign.
He has, however, strengthened his position among committed party voters, where 63 per cent now say they are satisfied with his performance, compared to 57 per cent five weeks ago.
Labour voters appear to think marginally more highly of him now than five weeks ago. The fall in his position therefore comes almost entirely from a sharp drop in Fianna Fáil voters' opinion of him - a fact which may not upset him unduly.
However, the fact remains that Mr Noonan's standing in the electorate as a whole is very low for a man who wants to be Taoiseach in under three months. A historical crumb of comfort comes from the fact that entering government in late 1994 prevented his predecessor's rating from falling off the bottom of the graph.
In 1993, Mr Bruton's rating went down to 24 per cent, was at just 35 per cent on the eve of his surprise elevation to the Taoiseach's office, only to shoot up to 53 per cent immediately afterwards. The Taoiseach's office is good for Fine Gael leaders' ratings.
To gain access to the Taoiseach's office, Mr Noonan's party has to win enough seats to lead a government. Unless it can improve dramatically on the current position where just one in five voters proposes to vote for it, the party won't get within an ass's roar of it. The situation in Dublin is particularly scary for Fine Gael where it currently stands two points behind Labour and now just a point ahead of the Green Party and Sinn Féin.
In this situation, notwithstanding the local strength of individual candidates, it runs varying degrees of risk to seats in Dún Laoghaire, Dublin South, Dublin South East, Dublin North East and Dublin West.
The party's support has risen, against the trend, in Munster from 14 to 17 per cent of the core vote, where they have target seats in Clare, Limerick East and Cork North West, as well as a struggle to hold on to both seats in Cork South Central.
The Labour Party - the other main component of any non-Fianna Fáil-led government - will be only slightly pleased with its one point rise to 12 per cent. It has a handful of candidates, including former deputies who lost seats in 1997, well positioned to take seats even without any great poll improvement. However, if it is to make a substantial breakthrough, it would hope to be in the mid-teens at this stage.
Throughout 2000 Labour registered 14 to 17 per cent of the vote but since last May it has failed to rise above 12 per cent.
Sinn Féin remains positioned to make some gains with its 8 per cent support remaining unchanged since the last poll. But for this party, the Progressive Democrats (up one to 4 per cent) and the Green Party (static at 5 per cent), the performance of individual candidates in a small number of constituencies will make the difference between success and failure.
The move towards other small party and independent candidates has been arrested somewhat with 9 per cent planning to vote this way, as opposed to 11 per cent five weeks ago. Independents who manage to have themselves portrayed as serious prospects in individual constituencies may nevertheless be able to capitalise on the significant number of voters who clearly do not see the election as a choice concerning who will govern and are willing to vote for candidates out of concern over single issues or as a protest.
The poll indicates that this group consists of concerned protest voters rather than apathetic individuals. They nominated a greater number of issues that would influence their vote than did supporters of the political parties.
Strikingly, 22 per cent of this group said the scandals disclosed at tribunals would influence their vote, compared to 12 per cent among the electorate generally.
These are politically aware people, more concerned than average about the main issues and more outraged by political scandals. They are there to be won over by individuals or parties who can tap into these concerns.