Army chiefs have criticised Obama's line on a withdrawal date as a tactical error, writes BEN FARMERin Kabul
THE GENERAL who commanded Nato troops in southern Afghanistan this year has said there will be no withdrawal next summer, and warned any success due to Barack Obama’s surge will not be seen for more than six months.
Gen Nick Carter told The Irish Times he was wary of reports the Taliban had been routed from their Kandahar heartland by the biggest military operation of the year. It was too early to tell whether the drop in Taliban violence around the southern city had been because of Operation Dragon Strike or the onset of winter.
He spoke as Washington continued to retreat from Obama’s promise to a public sceptical of the war that troops would gradually begin to leave the theatre of the nine-year conflict in July 2011.
Several generals had privately criticised the announcement of the July 2011 date as a tactical error which gave “sustenance” to Taliban rebels, who were encouraged to believe they could wait for Nato to leave.
Districts would not be handed over to President Hamid Karzai’s forces allowing Nato troops to head home until security was sustainable, they have said.
Gen Carter, a British general who led 50,000 troops until finishing his tour last week, said: “We will know in June or July next year how successful activity this year has been. That said, I don’t sense that anyone is going home on the first of July next year.
“I suspect if you are the Taliban, when you have been hoping that the first of July next year means everyone is going home, it could be a bit disturbing when you discover that our successors are still here.”
In September, several thousand US and Afghan troops pushed into the valleys west of Kandahar city, where the Taliban movement was born, to stop insurgents funnelling fighters, weapons and bombs into the city itself.
The operation to seize control of Kandahar was the centrepiece of Obama’s surge strategy, sending 30,000 reinforcements to the country.
Officials were quick to claim victory, saying the Taliban had been killed, driven into the Reg desert, or had given up.
The Irish Timeslast month reported that violence had reduced in Zhari district, under Taliban control for four years, but scattered attacks continued and US soldiers had yet to win over the population.
Fighting traditionally falls off in winter, when tree cover dies back, and resumes in May or June.
Gen Carter said: “I’m always a bit leery about hyperbole, but what I would say is that we definitely have the initiative now.
“We are squeezing the insurgency out of areas that traditionally they have had a hold over, and that’s going to make their life very awkward.”
Security along the critical Highway One ring road through the province has improved. The priority was now to fill the power void left by the Taliban before they could reinfiltrate.
Kabul’s grip on the newly cleared districts remains weak. The government in Zhari consists of just one governor, Karim Jan, who lives inside the US Forward Operating Base Wilson. The local power brokers who opposed the Taliban have long been forced out.
Gen Carter said: “When you know progress is happening is when local elders have moved back. The Taliban spotted that this campaign is essentially about owning villages and if they can intimidate or murder the elders so that the leadership leaves the villages, then that gives them the opportunity to back-fill it with their own alternative. If they own the villages, they own the space.”
Joseph Lieberman, US senator for Connecticut, visiting Kabul on Wednesday, underlined the unlikelihood of troops leaving next year. He said: “America’s not going – we’re going to stay here until the job is done here.
“We’re not going anywhere. In fact, the better date to think about is the end of 2014, as President Karzai has said, when the Afghan troops will be ready to take the lead.”