THE recurring clouds of the past few months, with a general election on the horizon, have contributed to a wavering political environment. In such a situation, medium term conclusions remain inappropriate until the formal election campaign gets under way.
In the last opinion poll - on December 13th - a majority considered that the Government had been damaged by the Michael Lowry affair satisfaction ratings for Mary Harney and Bertie Ahern had risen; and support for the Progressive Democrats improved by four points.
The survey also saw a number of commentators expressing surprise that Fine Gael had not lost support after the Lowry disclosure, while Labour was described as having "suffered by association", being down two points since September.
Further information is now available in the shape of this week's survey - conducted on January 27th and 28th - against a background which includes the significant impact of the Budget, but complicated by the hepatitis C tribunal and the concerns in relation to the status of Regional Technical Colleges. Finally, and coincidentally, the survey overlapped the announcement by Maire Geoghegan-Quinn of her decision to retire.
The Government in overall terms, and Fine Gael in particular, will be pleased at the general mood of the electorate this week. The Budget has been more favourably received than each of the previous three, a factor which almost certainly accounts for the Government's high satisfaction ratings, which is better than in any previous opinion poll since its formation just two years ago.
Allied to this, satisfaction with John Bruton as Taoiseach is higher at 58 per cent than at any time since May 1995 and, of perhaps greatest significance, support for Fine Gael has increased by three points to 27 per cent over the past six weeks.
Since this is the first Irish Times/MRBI opinion poll in this election year, there are no explicit indicators on the horizon. However, a more detailed historical analysis of each of the main parties may identify hidden clues.
Fianna Fail.
Throughout 1996 to date, Fianna Fail has averaged 46 per cent, which followed 47 per cent during 1995, and 43 per cent for 1994 when the party was last in government. Today's figure of 45 per cent is slightly below its 1996 average, but the margin is not significant and should not be taken as being indicative of any medium term trend.
Demographically, the party is maintaining its heartland impact, and continues to hold working class support almost on a par with all other parties combined. Bertie Ahern continues to be rated satisfactorily as party leader; indeed noticeably so by supporters of all parties. The unknown factor remains that this will be the first occasion on which Mr Ahern leads Fianna Fail into a general election, and in the past the party has tended to lose support as campaigns develop.
Fine Gael
The gradual growth in support for Fine Gael is evident over the past three years; 1994 average, 20 per cent; 1995, 23 per cent; 1996, 25 per cent; to today's figure of 27 per cent. What is also evident is that the extent of the variation from these averages is measurably less than that for either Fianna Fail or the Labour Party, and the question posed in the past poll again arises.
Does this reflect an inability to attract any potential floating voters? Today's 27 per cent could be saying that the party has the capacity to do so, while the current positioning cannot be dissociated from John Bruton's high satisfaction ratings.
Labour
During 1994, when in government, the Labour Party averaged 17 per cent; in 1995 this dropped to 13 per cent; in 1996 to 11 per cent. The present level of 10 per cent is identical to the party's December figure. Over 1995, Dick Spring's rating was 58 per cent, which dropped to 52 per cent in 1996. The current level of 51 per cent is identical to that of last September.
Opinion polls do not identify the reasons for variations in party support terms, but for Labour in common with all parties, the next six months leading up to the election will be crucial.
Progressive Democrats
One of the factors which have characterised the impact of the Progressive Democrats over the past three years has been stability. In 1994 8 per cent; 1995, 7 per cent; and 1996, 8 per cent. Today's level of support at 9 per cent is two points down on the December figure, which was at the time attributed to the residual impact of the party's annual conference.
Today's figure is the PDs' next highest support level for two years, and again poses the question as to whether it represents the first positive indication of the leader's capacity to transfer something of her personal appeal into actual voting behaviour.
Ms Harney's current personal rating at 69 per cent is significantly ahead of all other party leaders. A further point worthy of intention is that national opinion polls tend to understate support for parties which nominate candidates in a limited number of constituencies.
Democratic Left
Over the past three years, Democratic Left has had consistent support at 2 per cent each year, which for the reason stated above probably also represents something of an understatement. The party obtained 3 per cent first preferences in the 1992 election. At the moment the party has six seats, including four Ministers in Government. Demographically, party support is noticeably concentrated in urban areas and in the middle age group.
Green Party
Support for the Green Party has been quite consistent at 3 per cent over the past two years, and is also positioned in this poll at that level. This, by my calculation, is approximately double the party's general election impact and, having regard to its success in the European election, the indications are that this latent support may express itself later in the year.
Coalition preferences
Preferences for each of the two coalition options (Table C) are considerably below the corresponding support levels for the five parties concerned with 44 per cent favouring Fianna Fail/PDs, and 32 per cent Fine Gael, Labour and Democratic Left. A closer inspection of the data provides the basis for the variation.
. 24 per cent of Fianna Fail supporters do not favour an FF/PD coalition.
. 8 per cent of them favour an FG/Labour/DL coalition.
. 10 per cent of Fine Gael supporters would prefer a FF/PD coalition.
. 22 per cent of Fine Gael supporters do not want either option.
. 13 per cent of Labour supporters - would prefer a FF/PD coalition.
. 14 per cent of PD supporters opt for a FG/Labour/DL coalition.