New British government legislation to go through the Commons next week will not contain provision for the specific exclusion of Sinn Fein from office, or allow for a halt in the programme of paramilitary prisoner releases provided by the Belfast Agreement.
The present indications are that the Bill to be presented on Monday will not reflect the specific timetable for decommissioning outlined by the Prime Minister, Mr Blair, in the Commons earlier this week.
Instead, the responsibility for timetabling and certification of decommissioning will be left with the international commission.
And the proposed arrangements to cover the suspension of the Belfast Agreement will in all probability require an emergency Anglo-Irish treaty, if, as seems certain, the suspension was to include the cross-Border implementation bodies.
This became clear last night as Mr Blair and his ministers signalled a final push to secure the creation of the North's powersharing executive next week.
The Prime Minister's office confirmed that he had cancelled a planned visit to Poland amid strong speculation that he will return to Belfast shortly for direct talks with Ulster Unionist Assembly members.
The Bill giving effect to The Way Forward plan concluded by the Prime Minister and the Taoiseach at Stormont last Friday is due to be debated in the Commons on Tuesday and the Lords on Wednesday and Thursday. Assuming the triggering of the d'Hondt process for the nomination of ministers on Thursday, MPs are scheduled to approve the Devolution Order transferring powers to the Assembly and its executive next Friday.
However, the belief appears to be hardening in Ulster Unionist ranks that Mr David Trimble will be unable to buy into the British/Irish peace plan, and that the power-sharing executive will not be established on Thursday as scheduled.
Ahead of a potentially crucial meeting of the UUP's policy making executive committee in Belfast this afternoon, one of Mr Trimble's most senior colleagues told The Irish Times he was "absolutely certain" the executive would not be formed on the terms at present proposed.
Another former Trimble ally - while predicting Mr Blair could yet be forced to grant a "soft landing" and adjourn the process until the autumn - confirmed he would be prepared to sign a DUP-sponsored motion proposing Sinn Fein's exclusion from office.
The DUP motion currently has the support of 29 Assembly members. If one of Mr Trimble's 27 defects, the debate on the exclusion motion would take priority over the order to trigger the d'Hondt process for the nomination of ministers on Thursday. UUP members would then be faced with a roll-call vote on whether or not Sinn Fein should be admitted to government before the commencement of any IRA decommissioning.
Caught in an almost impossible position between the demands of the British government and the expectations of his party, Mr Trimble is in almost constant communication with Mr Blair.
However, the present indications are that Mr Trimble is unlikely to win the concessions he seeks on the legislation to be rushed through Parliament next week giving effect to last Friday's Way Forward proposals.
Specifically, it is understood that the British legislation - which Mr Trimble, the Irish Government and others have yet seen only in outline form - will contain no provision for the specific exclusion of Sinn Fein from office should the IRA default on the new decommissioning requirements.
Sources say the legislation will allow only for the suspension of the executive and other institutions, and subsequent review of the Belfast Agreement. Moreover, the sources say that that suspension and review would immediately arise should the UUP fail to trigger d'Hondt next Thursday. In that event the Assembly would be suspended, although it remains unclear whether Mr Trimble and Mr Seamus Mallon would retain their positions as First and Deputy First Ministers designate.
It is also understood that the legislation will not affect the existing rules covering prisoner releases. As with the case of Sinn Fein's exclusion, sources say the legislation will have to observe the letter and the spirit of the Belfast Agreement.
One possibility canvassed earlier in the week was that Mr Trimble might secure the right of the Assembly to vote on the exclusion of Sinn Fein in the event of non-IRA-decommissioning, prior to the commencement of the review process. However it is believed the Irish Government is resisting such a provision. Lengthy and detailed London/Dublin discussions this week have also focused on the question of whether cross-Border implementation bodies would be liable to immediate suspension in the event of the default or failsafe mechanism being invoked.
Since the implementation bodies are the subject of a separate international agreement, sources last night suggested their suspension would probably require comparable amending legislation in the Dail.