No signs of IRA returning to war

Yesterday's statement by the IRA outlines, for the first time openly, its terms for further decommissioning.

Yesterday's statement by the IRA outlines, for the first time openly, its terms for further decommissioning.

It states that, as its part of the agreement, the British government has to fulfil three commitments. These concern the implementation of the Patten policing reforms; the closure of more British army bases; and the legal status of IRA members "on the run" from the Northern Ireland courts.

The IRA's reference to "anger and frustration" among its members may be to continuing agitation, particularly in the Border area of south Armagh, about the remaining British army observation posts there.

The army recently made it known that it believes any further reduction of its physical presence in the area could jeopardise security-force lives.

READ MORE

While there is evidence that the dissident "Real IRA" is growing in strength, republicans believe this is being as used as an excuse to maintain a military presence in south Armagh.

Security sources on both sides of the Border say there is no evidence to suggest that the IRA's belligerent statement is an indication that it intends returning to violence.

This year has seen probably the lowest levels of IRA activity since the organisation was formed in 1970. It was responsible for shooting dead four men: three drug-dealers and a member of the "Real IRA".

The whole area of IRA "finance" is likely to come under scrutiny in the coming years as Sinn Fein moves further into mainstream politics.

According to gardai, the IRA had built up a very substantial financial support structure by the time of the ceasefires. Its earnings were initially from illegal means such as smuggling and other forms of racketeering. But, increasingly, it had begun investing its finances in property and other legitimate "front" businesses.

According to security sources on both sides of the Border, many IRA figures have drifted off into both legitimate and illicit activities. The sources say the organisation has reduced its recruitment and training. New members are said to be training only in the use of short arms. There are no indications that it is training any longer in the use of mortars or bombs.

However, IRA members have been seen carrying out very obvious surveillance of British army and RUC barracks in Border areas. According to security sources this is merely a form of intimidation.