No surprises expected on Hume's home turf

THE most prominent election poster in Derry is against the whole thing

THE most prominent election poster in Derry is against the whole thing. "Socialists say: boycott this sectarian election!" it proclaims, announcing a meeting next Tuesday night where the indefitigable Eamonn McCann will spell the message out in detail.

The traditional razzmatazz of election time may be missing but then it isn't a traditional election. The forum is a shadowy body which means different things to different people. The real business is set to start on June 10th. So do these elections really matter?

For most politicians on both sides, the answer is "yes". Even if the forum turns out to be a damp squib, as the nationalists wish, next Thursday's poll is at the very least a test of strength at a crucial moment.

"There's a very deep appreciation amongst the entire community in the North and throughout the island of the seriousness of the times that we're living in," Sinn Fein's Martin McGuinness said. An increased Sinn Fein vote would send "a very powerful message" to the British government.

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On past figures, McGuinness should be the only Sinn Fein candidate to win a seat in the Foyle constituency, with three going to the SDLP and one to the Democratic Unionist Party.

Number two on the Sinn Fein ticket is the party's high profile chairman, Mitchel McLaughlin, and the republicans are making a strong appeal to SDLP voters to support Sinn Fein on this occasion.

But the SDLP's Mark Durkan pointed out that despite the recent collaboration between the two parties, serious "fault lines" remained.

"Sinn Fein are running on a slogan of `Vote for Peace'. We can tell people, `Yes, in voting for us you're voting for peace And you know you're voting against violence because we're prepared to repudiate it, condemn it, and say we do so'."

Mr Durkan is second on the SDLP ticket, after the party leader, Mr John Hume. "John Hume would be probably the strongest card the SDLP has across the North and not least in Derry."

Mr Durkan said there had been a "slow build up"; the SDLP initially feared a low poll but he is happier now "that we can mobilise against this". People on the doorsteps were asking what was the point of voting, since the parties would be equally represented at the talks, which in any case might not even last. The SDLP's counter argument was that abstaining only played into the hands of the unionist parties.

The big concern of the main DUP candidate, Gregory Campbell, is that a split unionist vote might give all five seats to the nationalist side.

His election literature spells it out: "There are seven parties or groups which could be described as Pro Unionist or Anti United Ireland so the possibility of deep division of the unionist vote is very real."

He hammered this message home on the doorsteps in the Tullyalley housing estate on the outskirts of the city. But he also took careful notes when a constituent complained about rubbish and briars in the vicinity. "All politics is local," he said.

There was clearly some confusion because of the complexities of the voting system but nearly everybody at the doors knew where the DUP stood on the issues. Having Dr Paisley's name on the ballot paper will help.

"I know that, particularly in the South, in some sections of the media, there is almost an impatience with the electorate to hurry up and get rid of this bugbear Paisley but everybody, whether they be in Dublin, London or Washington, is going to see on the 30th of May that the old man still pulls the vote," Mr Campbell said.

Derry's deputy mayor, Richard Dallas, is a candidate for the Ulster Unionist Party. He was born in December 1968, just after the Troubles began in Derry. His father's car was stoned as Richard and his twin brother were driven home from Altnagelvin hospital.

He predicted the DUP vote would fall while the UUP increased its share, and Sinn Fein's vote would increase slightly at the expense of the SDLP. He expected the battle between the SDLP and Sinn Fein to "turn much nastier towards the election date".

Although there was consensus and co operation on non contentious bread and butter issues on the city council it angered him when, as deputy mayor, he was not even introduced to President Clinton during his visit to Derry.

The election of David Trimble as UUP leader had revitalised the party locally. "He has a much more vocal stance and much higher profile than Mr Molyneaux," Mr Dallas said.

There is a total of 16 parties fielding 44 candidates in the Foyle constituency, including Alliance, Democratic Left, the Greens, Independent Chambers, Labour, the Northern Ireland Women's Coalition, the Progressive Unionist Party, the Conservative Party, UK Unionists, the Ulster Democratic Party, Ulster Independence Movement and the Workers' Party.

But no surprises are expected on John Hume's home turf.