TODAY, by some accounts, is the anniversary of the most celebrated example in the history of humanity of successful preventive action based on an accurate long range weather forecast.
Noah was the recipient of the prediction, and with 100 years to spare he had ample time to build all Ark and avoid the worst effects of the expected, dramatic increase in monthly rainfall.
With, as a meteorological observer might have recorded it at the time, "precipitation within sight", Noah loaded on to the Ark his family and two of every kind of insect, animal and bird. Then, exactly as forecast, "the rain fell upon the Earth for 40 days and 40 nights, and overflowed exceedingly and filled all the faces of the Earth; and the water was 15 cubits higher than the mountains which it covered".
Six months later, the Ark was beached upon Mount Ararat, and the survivors went about their daily business.
Now, considerable expertise has been applied to trying to estimate the date on which this great meteorological event took place. The most common methodology is that of biblical "begats".
According to Genesis, Adam begat a son called Seth when he was 130 years old - and incidentally lived on for another 800 years to reach the grand old age of 930. The lively Seth, in turn, had a son when he was 105, and this son, Enos, begat Cainan when he was a mere stripling of 90. And so it goes on through a long list to reach Mathusala, and finally Mathusala's grandson Noah.
By continuing this analysis, and by using other bits and scraps of information in the various chapters, one can reach a stage where the happenings described overlap with confirmed historical events, and so is it possible to arrive at an estimate for the date of the Creation; a quick re run will then provide the date of Noah's flood. The most conscientious experts place this on November 25th, 2348 BC and, if we carefully omit year zero to avoid indignant clutter on the Letters' Page, this works out at exactly 4343 years ago today.
It must be said that scientific research into prehistoric weather happenings reveals no trace of any such event 4,000 years ago. Tree ring records show no discontinuity; ice cores from the Arctic and elsewhere suggest a shift in climate now and then, but no substantial evidence of worldwide inundation; and pollen residues are silent on the deluge. And, for hydrologists, there remains the nagging question of what happened afterwards to the 3 billion cubic miles of water required to give the necessary depth.