No way

Today's result is expected to yield a very clear Yes to all three referendum questions

Today's result is expected to yield a very clear Yes to all three referendum questions. Yes to the Belfast Agreement in the North, Yes to the constitutional changes to Articles 2 and 3 in the Republic and Yes to the Amsterdam Treaty in the Republic.

But what if there is a No result? Those who care about these things - and that includes the five main political parties in the Republic and, on the one question that applies to them, all the main parties in the North, immediately reply that the consequences don't bear thinking about. But what are they?

Well, if the Belfast Agreement is rejected in either jurisdiction, it falls in both. That means Articles 2 and 3 will not be altered in the Republic if the North votes No, and that the new Northern Ireland Assembly will not be set up if the Republic votes No. Neither negative result is seriously contemplated, but what is feared is that the size of the Yes vote in the North will be below 60 per cent, indicating that a majority of Protestants rejects the peace agreement. Anti-agreement candidates can then expect to win seats in next month's elections to the new Northern Assembly and its chances of survival, let alone success, will take a very serious turn for the worse.

The immediate consequence of a No result in either jurisdiction would mean quick crisis talks between the two sovereign governments, a return to the drawing board and huge gloom all round.

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If the Amsterdam Treaty is rejected in the Republic, the Government, as the Danish administration did in the past, will find out why we didn't like it and then return to the people with a few amendments. Other states will offer help and while there wouldn't be another intergovernmental conference, we would have the next best thing to it. Meanwhile, the rest of Europe would wait and the great march forward would be delayed by at least a year. But rest easy, none of this is expected to happen.