CONSTITUENCY NOTEBOOK/Limerick East: The home constituency of Michael Noonan, Limerick East, is a key marginal for the beleaguered Fine Gael leader, where he is hoping to gain a second seat for his running-mate, Senator Mary Jackman. It will also be a key symbolic test of the influence of his leadership. The "Noonan factor" strategy appears to be having little effect in neighbouring constituencies.
The party is campaigning locally on an "If you want a Limerick Taoiseach" slogan and is homing in on the weakness of the Progressive Democrats' seat, held by the former party leader, Des O'Malley, who is now retiring. His replacement, county councillor Tim O'Malley, a pharmacist in Dooradoyle, lacks the profile of his cousin.
Countering Michael Noonan's influence for Fianna Fáil is Minister of State Willie O'Dea, a poll-topper whose popularity, largely due to an assiduous appetite for constituency work, still mystifies some. A TG4 poll in March put his first-preference vote at 42 per cent, more than double the quota and 17 percentage points greater than his 1997 poll-topping performance of 25 per cent.
On that basis, he has been handed the tantalising prospect of bringing in two of his colleagues in his wake, his fellow TD, Eddie Wade, and newcomer Peter Power, a city councillor and solicitor. What is more likely is that Eddie Wade, who relies on a vote in the rural part of the city, will lose his seat to Peter Power, who has been quietly working on the urban vote and will be relying on transfers from Willie O'Dea's surplus.
Meanwhile, the Labour Party candidate, Jan O'Sullivan, also has a fight on her hands after the same TG4 poll put her vote at 8 per cent, the same as Mary Jackman's, but without the advantage of having party transfers.
The Green Party has a newcomer, Tim Hourigan, in the contest and the Christian Solidarity Party has Conor O'Donoghue. But most of the interest outside the main parties will be concentrated on the raft of Independents, some of whom are household names.
These are the pro-life campaigner, Nora Bennis, and city councillor Michael Kelly, a reformed criminal who is using Martin Luther King's words, "I have a dream", as an electioneering catchphrase. His fellow county councillor and defector from Fine Gael, Pat Kennedy, is well-known in the city and his transfers may help Mary Jackman. The other Independents include city councillor John Gilligan, the former Limerick hurling manager, Tom Ryan, and Aidan Ryan, a campaigner for Shannon Airport.
Prediction: FF 2, FG 2, Lab 1. FG gain from PDs.