The Fine Gael leader Michael Noonan addresses his party's ardfheis todayin what will undoubtedly be the most important speech he has delivered in apolitical career spanning 21 years, writes Alison O'Connor
Ard Fheiseanna are the perfect opportunity for political parties to rally the troops, look to the future with optimism and present a bright face to the outside world.
Never was this more necessary for Fine Gael, which is having its 71st ard fheis this weekend. It's been a bruising few weeks for the party and its leader, Michael Noonan. Just over a year in the job, he had one of the shortest political honeymoons ever. A strong momentum was cut dead in its tracks by the controversy over the Telenor payment.
In recent weeks, the Limerick man has again appeared embattled. There was the screening of the hepatitis C drama, No Tears, on RTÉ, the falling flat of the proposal to compensate Eircom shareholders and poor opinion poll showings. The most recent Irish Times/MRBI poll showed that party support had fallen three points to 21 per cent.
The bad news for the party was compounded by the poor showing of Mr Noonan. Just 31 per cent of voters were satisfied with his performance as leader, with 37 per cent dissatisfied. This was a significantly worse showing than that of John Bruton a year ago, which led to his departure as party leader.
But TDs and senators say this ard fheis, which they are expecting 4,000 delegates to attend, will be a turning point and the launching pad for the general election campaign.
"This has to be Michael Noonan's finest hour, or else we are in trouble," said one TD. "He is as good as what we have, and we have to support him. The media didn't like Alan Dukes, they didn't like John Bruton, and now they don't like Michael Noonan, so it doesn't really matter, does it?"
"The media has been giving us an awful pounding. People are angry with RTÉ and Independent Newspapers. But, like a football match, if you get kicked enough, you eventually kick back. Anyway, it's the people we have to convince in this election, not the media."
That soreness towards the media is felt by many Fine Gaelers at the moment, but they argue that it is making them all the more determined to succeed.
There has been unease at the way the party leader has seemed to be repackaging himself with a softer image. Deputies say they elected him for the man he is, not to morph into someone else. Although they will probably be happy to see him featuring in an upcoming edition of VIP magazine.
The deputy leader of Fine Gael, Jim Mitchell, will play a prominent role in this weekend's proceedings, but there does not seem to be any personal or political closeness between him and his leader. A number of his colleagues are alarmed at Mr Mitchell's propensity for solo runs. The proposal to compensate taxi-drivers ranks chief among their examples, as well as the proposal to accommodate people waiting on housing lists in flotels.
However, this week the mood of the party has taken a turn for the better. Despite their seeming disarray on the abortion referendum initially, there were strong performances from Michael Noonan in the Dáil, which put the Government under pressure. The party presented coherent arguments against the proposals at their campaign launch and Nora Owen, the campaign director, scored well against the Minister for Health, Mr Martin, on the RTÉ television news on the same day.
Their €100,000 poster campaign, accusing the Government of failing to tackle the country's housing, education and crime problems, is on billboards around the country.
According to party chief whip Paul Bradford, this weekend is an occasion for Fine Gael delegates from all over the country to gather in determined mood. "You will see an energised, optimistic party. This is our route into the election campaign and into government."
"We will be setting out our stall for future government," said director of policy Richard Bruton. "We will be focusing on the wasted years which the present Government would have you believe are the problems of success but are, in fact, the problems of bad management."
The party has so far selected 80 general election candidates to stand in 42 constituencies. Mr Noonan has said that if, between them, Fine Gael and Labour gain eight seats in the election, they will be in a position to form a government. The party has set its sights on those gains in a number of constituencies, focusing on his own bailiwick. They are hopeful of Fine Gael gains in Limerick East, Clare, Cork North-West, Donegal North-East and Dublin South-Central. They are confident of holding their two seats in Sligo/Leitrim and believe Fianna Fáil will lose a seat there to Independent candidate Marian Harkin.
They are also hopeful of wins in Tipperary North and Dublin West, but feel that, if their people lose out, the Labour candidates will take the seats to reach that magic figure.
The party leader will have 45 minutes tonight to make his pitch, with three video inserts. They will concentrate on "Michael Noonan, the man", the campaign issues for the general election and the party's vision. The theme "Vision with Purpose" will not concentrate on the negative (earlier sessions will have highlighted the Government's failings and the squandering of the boom) but will explain to the electorate why they should put him and Fine Gael in power.
It will be the most important speech of his 21-year political career.