JOHN BRUTON may get to ratify his candidate in North Tipperary but Michael Lowry will capture the vote. Only two Fine Gael councillors in the constituency have declared intent to support Mr Lowry and they will be joined by the former minister's brother, Phil, also a councillor. However, under the surface, members are disconsolate. Their loyalty is divided between party and person.
For many in his constituency, Michael Lowry has the air of a hunted man in need of a safe house. If they have their way, they will at least ensure him a safe seat. He is seen by his loyalists as a victim, a neighbour's son persecuted by the media and cynically - cast adrift by a Fine Gael leadership that viewed him as a liability. In the ranks, the small matter of his tax affairs is not enough to damage him.
North Tipperary is still coming to terms with his exit from the party last week, and while it is difficult to assess how the average Fine Gael supporter will vote, there is little doubt among friend or critic but that he will return to the 28th Dail.
Earlier this week in Government Buildings the Taoiseach sought and secured the allegiance of the majority of his councillors in North Tipperary. Five of the seven county councillors have pledged their support and most of the urban district councillors are sticking with the party. The constituency officers will also stay.
But one party member says: "That is not the accurate picture. It belies what is happening among the silent supporters. On the face of it, party unity is largely holding up. But, while people are still members of the party, they are actually supporting Lowry."
After travelling to Dublin at less than 24 hours notice on Tuesday, councillors were told by Mr Bruton that he could not be perceived as a Taoiseach who presided over problems about tax.
He stressed that they could not hold office in Fine Gael and canvass for a non party candidate. To do so would amount to "self expulsion" from the party, Mr Bruton said, stopping short of declaring that they would be expelled. If they found they could not support the official Fine Gael candidate, they should step aside, he suggested.
But it won't be that simple.
Cllr Willie Kennedy and Templemore Urban District councillor Mr Henry Young confirmed that they will write to headquarters when Mr Lowry declares his intention to contest the election and announce their intention to support him.
Cllr Kennedy said: "That will lead to my automatic expulsion. I have been in Fine Gael for 30 years and have held every position at branch and district level. But it would be very hard for me to turn my back on a man who has looked after his constituents the way Michael Lowry has done."
Mr Young is equally unequivocal. "I do feel that this man has been a victim of circumstances totally and utterly outside his control. He was caught in a net and could not get out. He has been battered and beaten and it is time to say `enough is enough' ... have compassion and sympathy for a man who has been done down so much. It would be unfair of me to do otherwise."
Mr Ailbe Allen, one of the key Fine Gael organisers in the constituency, says he too will tell headquarters about his intention to support Mr Lowry. A member of the party since the "Just Society" era of the late 1960s, Mr Allen says he "worked with Michael Lowry all during his political life".
"We are good friends, though the word friend is often abused now. But I have that loyalty to him. I regard him still as Fine Gael, as the Fine Gael candidate. I don't stop to think of him as being different."
Mr Lowry is saying little but his supporters anticipate an announcement early next week of his intention to seek to retain his North Tipperary Dail seat. Contrary to earlier expectations, he will not hold a meeting but will simply make the announcement a tactical move since it means members do not have to declare themselves.
Meanwhile, Fine Gael has to select a candidate on Thursday next to fight him. (The convention goes ahead on that date in spite of local opposition). Three councillors are emerging as potential challengers - Tom Ryan, a Telecom employee from Nenagh; Noel Coonan, a farmer from near Templemore, and Mai Quinn, a teacher living near Thurles.
Mr Ryan has already stated his intention to seek a nomination and it is believed that Mr Coonan will do likewise. Ms Quinn, expressing deep concern about Fine Gael's future in the constituency, says she has not yet decided what to do.
The Fine Gael executive council directed on Tuesday night that one candidate be selected.
Ironically for the party, an influx of new members in recent months could prove counter productive. According to Willie Kennedy at the onset of Michael Lowry's troubles people began to join up "to ensure he would win a nomination handsomely and to fight off the possibility that headquarters would refuse to ratify his nomination."
"This was spontaneous," says Mr Kennedy. "Michael Lowry had nothing to do with it".
NOW this group has the capacity to go to the Fine Gael nomination convention and vote for the weakest candidate.
Mr Lowry has said he will not influence the Fine Gael convention, because to do so would cause bitterness. However, he has 80 members in his own old branch and, since they are still within the Fine Gael fold, they can vote as they wish.
"Other branches can do likewise and most of them are supporting Lowry," says one party member.
The carve up of the South Tipperary constituency put an extra 10,000 votes into North Tipperary and Mr Lowry's supporters reckon he stands a good chance of securing most of the 2,500 of those likely to fall to Fine Gael. But while he is likely to win support in his own backyard, how will he perform further north at the other end of the constituency?
Cllr Ger Darcy, a farmer near Borrisokane, says Michael Lowry has "tremendous support among branch members".
Another long time member says Fine Gael is on the verge of ending up "a lonely little party".