Northern Secretary Peter Hain will this week announce an Assembly election for early March next year, according to well-informed London and Dublin sources.
Mr Hain is due to state that the election will be held during the first nine days in March, most likely on Wednesday, March 7th, or Thursday, March 8th, or possibly on Wednesday, March 1st, sources said.
He will declare the election date against growing concern in Dublin and London that the current deadlock between Sinn Féin and the DUP over policing could derail the St Andrews Agreement.
That concern was exacerbated last night after a republican source said that senior Sinn Féin figures such as Gerry Adams, Martin McGuinness and Gerry Kelly have stepped up their security for fear of assassination attempts by dissident republicans. Sinn Féin fears that a number of disaffected IRA members concerned about a potential historic acceptance by Sinn Fein of the PSNI have linked up with dissidents, the source said.
Mr Hain is to include the March election date in legislation he is introducing at Westminster on Thursday. The early announcement of the date may help inject momentum to the political process which has become stalled and increasingly soured because of a policing and power-sharing standoff between Sinn Féin and the DUP.
Mr Hain is to meet Minister for Foreign Affairs Dermot Ahern today to discuss these and other problems in the process. While Taoiseach Bertie Ahern has indicated his preference for a referendum, rather than elections, to endorse the St Andrews Agreement, the Government is likely to bow to what is viewed as a political necessity for elections.
The election rather than a referendum will be particularly challenging for the Ulster Unionist Party and the SDLP, with DUP and Sinn Féin convinced they can gain seats. More immediately, though, the concern for the British and Irish governments is how to ensure that Friday week's November 24th deadline for appointing a shadow First Minister and Deputy First Minister is met.
In the St Andrews Agreement timetable the Assembly is to meet on November 24th to nominate the Rev Ian Paisley and Mr McGuinness in these designate posts. Failure to achieve this deadline would result in the dissolution of the Assembly and the collapse of the agreement, Mr Hain again made clear at the weekend, which would also mean there would be no elections.
A standoff is in place on this issue because the DUP wants Mr McGuinness to take a pledge of office on November 24th committing himself to supporting the PSNI, even though the governments' requirement for this pledge is March 26th when the Executive and Assembly are scheduled to be fully reinstated. Sinn Féin however, insists no such pledge can be taken on Friday week because it would be seen to pre-empt a special Sinn Féin ardfheis.
