THE NORDIC region’s last remaining Labour-led government is fighting for its political future today as Norwegian voters cast their ballots in one of the most tightly contested general elections in decades.
The campaign, in what is the world’s fifth-largest oil exporting country, has pitched a centre-left majority coalition against a loosely arrayed opposition and centred on public spending, energy policy, taxes and the viability of the welfare state.
Prime minister Jens Stoltenberg (51), who has led Norway since 2005, attempted to make job security the main issue by pummelling home the message that an experienced administration is the safest bet during a global slowdown.
Ironically, compared to most other European countries, Norway’s economy is in an enviable state. Unemployment is just 3 per cent and a fiscal stimulus package nudged the country out of recession in the second quarter of this year.
The government pension fund, into which Norway squirrels away its surplus wealth, is one of the world’s largest with a fortune worth more than €270 billion in stocks and bonds.
Despite such favourable economic indicators, Mr Stoltenberg has struggled to persuade voters to re-elect him.
One opinion poll released over the weekend gave the prime minister’s bloc a one-seat majority. A second opinion poll awarded the same victory margin to the opposition.
It has been 16 years since a government won a second consecutive term. Norwegians have become accustomed to political change and many voters opt to switch sides for the sake of change itself.
The government readily admits that outside observers are puzzled by voter dissatisfaction. “We don’t have any problems in Norway. That’s the problem,” defence minister Anne-Grete Strøm-Erichsen told The Irish Times.
This has proved a vacuum into which the Progress Party, a populist, free-spending and virulently anti-immigration party, has been able to tap.
Siv Jensen, the Progress Party’s energetic leader, has struck a chord with her simple message that such a rich country should provide better elderly care, education and hospital services.
Ms Jensen has also promised to lower taxes, crack down on crime and tighten immigration policy all policies which recall Denmark’s far-right Pia Kjaersgaard or the late Jörg Haider of Austria.
Based on these promises, the Progress Party has experienced a surge in popularity, vying with Labour to become the largest party after the election.
However, in the last few days of the campaign, the party has seen a slip in opinion polls because of fears that its plan to dip into the wealth fund could jeopardise Norway’s long-term health.
More importantly, unease as to whether Ms Jensen could actually cobble together a coalition, given that only one of the three main non-socialist groups is willing to co-operate with her, has increased in recent days.
Observers in Oslo say that the opposition’s lack of cohesion and failure to build a common platform could allow Mr Stoltenberg to remain in office even possibly as a single-party minority administration.