The number of Leaving Certificate students opting to study computers at third level has fallen by more than 50 per cent, in a development which will cause alarm across the State's high-tech sector.
First preference application figures to the Central Applications Office (CAO) - seen by The Irish Times - suggest college entry points for computer courses are set to decline dramatically.
The number opting for computer courses as their first preference at third level has declined from more than 10,000 last year to just in excess of 5,000 in the current year.
But the figures also show some small resurgence of interest in science courses after a long period in which demand was declining.
As a result, college entry points for science may actually increase marginally, countering the general trend which will show a drop in points for courses.
On the basis of the CAO final first preference application figures compiled in recent weeks, college entry points for courses in business and arts may decline marginally.
But in the university sector points could actually increase in the social studies/humanities area; students are increasingly looking to these more secure areas of employment as they move away from the computer sector.
The CAO figures show only 3 per cent of students have chosen computer courses as their first choice university degree, compared to 7 per cent last year.
The trend is equally dramatic in the institute of technology (IOT) sector for both degree courses and for certificate and diploma courses.
For degree courses, the number of students is down from around 1,700 to 1,200 but for cert/diploma courses the number has halved from over 6,000 last year to less than 3,000 this year.
Education sources say students are turning away from computers because of the difficulties in the high-tech sector, especially in once fashionable Internet sector. The good news for students is that CAO points for computer courses will now decline dramatically. But the trend will worry large multinationals like Intel who need a steady stream of high-calibre computer graduates.
The Government and business will be heartened, however, by the resurgence of interest in science courses. Over 200 more students have selected science as their first choice for a degree compared to last year but in the IOT sector the percentage of students selecting science as their first option has almost doubled.
The final CAO figures also show a continued high level of interest in a teaching career, despite the ASTI strike. The number opting for education courses as their first choice in university has increased from 991 to 1,274.
The final first preference applications to the CAO do not give a definitive figure of demand for each course. These will change in the light of the CAO offers next Tuesday but they indicate the overall trend.
Last year in total over 10,000 opted for computer courses as their first preference for degrees in the universities, institutes of technology and cert/diploma courses in the IOT sector. This year, the figure is just over 5,000.
The Leaving Cert results will be made available in schools tomorrow. This year the number who sat the exam - 56,800 - was the lowest for more than a decade. In 1995, some 68,000 candidates took the exam.
The steep decline means fewer students are chasing more places at third level. This should see a continued decline in the points requirements, though the number of mature students opting to return to college means the decline in points will not be as dramatic as the Leaving Cert figures might suggest.