Michael O'Regan, Parliamentary Reporter, predicts a close contest between two former Fianna Fáil colleagues to top the poll
There is a major battle to head the poll in Kerry South, which is expected to show no change in Dáil representation.
The Minister for Justice, Mr O'Donoghue, and the Independent, Mr Jackie Healy-Rae, once Fianna Fáil colleagues, are now bitter political foes. Achieving the highest first preference vote will be a matter of ego as much as anything else.
The Minister has been a powerful and controversial force in the Cabinet, while Mr Healy-Rae has enjoyed the limelight as one of the Independent TDs supporting the Government.
He was once an active Fianna Fáil foot soldier, who participated in some of the keenly-fought by-elections under Neil Blaney in the 1960s. Fianna Fáil discovered just how well he had learned from the master political tactician of the by-election circuit when he caused a sensation by taking the party's second seat as an Independent in 1997. He had failed to get a nomination at the selection convention and a personal plea to Bertie Ahern to add him to the ticket fell on deaf ears.
Last time, after a colourful campaign, reminiscent of the style of electioneering which was the norm in the Blaney by-election campaigns, he topped the poll with 20.34 per cent of the vote, 16 votes ahead of Mr O'Donoghue. Both have since delivered to the constituency, although who should get credit for what is a matter of dispute between them.
Mr O'Donoghue is expected to top the poll this time, followed by Mr Healy-Rae. The third TD for the constituency, Ms Breeda Moynihan-Cronin, Labour, is likely to be next. This is also likely to reflect the outcome of the election, with no change in party or personnel, despite a strong challenge from Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael to take a seat.
Mr O'Donoghue's running mate is Mr Tom Fleming, a respected and popular county councillor, from Scartaglen, who may well eat into Mr Healy-Rae's vote.
Fine Gael, with Dingle-based councillor, Mr Seamus "Cosai" Fitzgerald, and the Killarney councillor, Ms Sheila Casey, will launch a challenge to win back the seat held by Michael Begley from 1969 to 89. Mr Fitzgerald will be attempting to emulate Mr Begley, who is also from Dingle, presenting himself as the locally based TD from the peninsula. But Fine Gael has a political mountain to climb in the constituency and would need a national swing to the party to secure a seat.
Last time, with a two-candidate strategy, the party's share of the vote fell from 19.9 per cent to 13.8 per cent, which was the lowest in its history.
Ms Moynihan-Cronin, despite a strong Dáil performance as the party's spokeswoman on tourism, cannot afford to be complacent. Last time, her vote was down by 10 per cent, underlining the vulnerability of a seat won and lost and then won back by her late father, Michael Moynihan. But the electoral tide was going out for Labour in 1997,and she is expected to turn in an improved performance.
There are two other Independent candidates, Mr Donal Barry, Caherciveen, and Mr Donal Grady, a Killarney councillor.
Prediction: FF 1; Lab 1; Ind 1. No change.
1997 - FF 31.79 per cent; FG 13.77 per cent; Lab 14.05 per cent; Others 40.39 per cent. Outgoing TDs: John O'Donoghue (FF); Breeda Moynihan-Cronin (Lab); Jackie Healy-Rae (Ind)