The word went out to Ned O'Keeffe yesterday that Bertie Ahern would be pleased to accept his resignation. After two months of pressure from the Opposition parties, the Taoiseach had taken enough. It was impossible to protect the junior Minister any longer, he let it be known. It was time for the East Cork TD to shuffle off the Government stage.
The message was not well received. Having insisted for the past two months that he had done nothing improper, illegal or unethical, the multimillionaire pig farmer and politician was not going to give up easily. His first response was to tell various messengers - when they finally tracked him down - to get lost.
The word from Fianna Failers during the week had Ned falling on his sword if the Ethics in Public Office Commission found he still had questions to answer after its preliminary investigation. And a whisper from the Taoiseach's office confirmed the bad news. Mr Ahern would not sit around and wait for the commission to make a final determination.
On three occasions in the Dail this week, Bertie Ahern remained sullen and silent as Ruairi Quinn challenged him to express confidence in his beleaguered junior Minister. The Taoiseach's silence said it all.
Having expressed "serious concern" about developments on Thursday, a Government spokesman upped the ante last night. The Taoiseach would "deal with the issue", he confirmed. A Government decision next Monday is expected to deliver the coup de grace. After all, the Progressive Democrats intoned, they had to have confidence in the Minister with responsibility for food safety.
The Labour Party had started the rumpus two months ago. Mr O'Keeffe had failed to identify his interest in a pig-food compounding plant that produced meat-and-bone meal for his family farm, at a time when he led Government opposition in the Dail to a ban on the use of bonemeal. When the Taoiseach declined to censure his colleague for commercial involvement and a conflict of interests under the Guidelines for Ministers, the Labour Party formally complained to the Ethics in Public Office Commission.
Stuff began to fall out of the closet. Mr O'Keeffe is a tough piece of work. Over the years, he made enemies in the pig industry. Documents that suggested his ongoing involvement in the family pig farm and compounding business leaked into the public domain. European meat markets, shattered by the scare over mad cow disease and vCJD, had received all the wrong signals.
But Ned fought on. "I honestly didn't consider this minimal activity in relation to a family farm as being actively involved in its management," he said. Outside the Dail, the wheels of the commission ground into motion. Letters were exchanged with the Minister of State and legal teams engaged. When the dust finally settled on Thursday, the commission considered it "appropriate" to carry out a full investigation. It hastened to add that the decision should not be construed as indicating improper behaviour by Mr O'Keeffe.
In spite of the commission's insistence that Mr O'Keeffe should be regarded as innocent until further notice, a line had been crossed. The very first formal investigation of a Government Minister under the Act was under way.
Bertie was in Donegal. Ned was at home in Cork. And the Minister of State was known to be a difficult customer when his blood was up. The resignation/sacking had to be handled delicately. If the matter got out of hand, a man of his financial means might call it a day and resign his Dail seat. Such a development could seriously jeopardise the Coalition Government's stability.
Still, the cat had to be belled. And there was no better man than the Taoiseach to see it done in a smooth manner. He had held the line for his Minister of State in the Dail while the Ethics in Public Office Commission conducted its preliminary inquiries. He had declined to make any negative adjudication where the Cabinet Guidelines for Ministers were concerned. But he had reached the end of that particular road.
The announcement by the Ethics in Public Office Commission that it was about to begin a formal investigation was uncharted territory. It represented a direct threat not just to Mr O'Keeffe, but to Mr Ahern himself. For so long as a preliminary investigation was under way, it was possible for the Taoiseach to duck and dodge. But the spotlight was certain to focus on Mr Ahern's own lack of action in the weeks ahead. And his record for prevarication where Charlie Haughey, Ray Burke, Liam Lawlor, John Ellis and Denis Foley were concerned would be embellished.
Word was sent to the junior Minister. Do the hard thing and offer it up for the party. Mr Ahern's people are still awaiting a response. But it is all over bar the shouting. Mr O'Keeffe's choice is stark: jump or be pushed.