Obama must try again for white working-class vote

UNITED STATES: Barack Obama did all he could to win over white working-class voters during the Democratic primaries - shaking…

UNITED STATES:Barack Obama did all he could to win over white working-class voters during the Democratic primaries - shaking hands at factories, downing beers, bowling a few frames - but it was largely in vain, as Hillary Clinton trounced him with the group in most states.

Now, the senator from Illinois must do it all over again against John McCain, for white working-class voters will remain a pivotal group, particularly in swing states such as Ohio and Pennsylvania.

Democrats hope that discontent over the economy, high fuel prices and the war in Iraq will lead working-class voters to their side. Yet they have a candidate who, against Mrs Clinton, faced cultural barriers with blue-collar voters, some of whom expressed reservations about voting for a black candidate.

Mr Obama's comments that working-class people are bitter and cling to their guns and religion as a way of dealing with economic uncertainty did not help.

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The McCain campaign has begun targeting the group in earnest, believing Mr Obama's problems appealing to these voters put Democratic states such as Michigan into play while leaving would- be swing states, such as West Virginia, securely in their column.

Some analysts, though, say Mr Obama's difficulty has been overstated. For starters, many of the working-class Democrats or independents who voted for Mrs Clinton had not voted Democratic in the last two presidential elections, which means that it would not necessarily be disastrous for Mr Obama if he did not win a majority of their votes in November.

In 2004, President Bush won white voters without college degrees by 23 percentage points over John Kerry, a bigger margin than he enjoyed over Al Gore in 2000.

Democrats whittled that deficit to 10 points in the congressional elections of 2006, when they retook both houses of Congress. No Democratic presidential candidate has won the group since 1980, when pollsters started tracking the demographic.

President Bush in 2004 carried Macomb County, Michigan, a redoubt of "Reagan Democrats", yet Mr Kerry won the state. In Pennsylvania, Mr Bush won white voters without college degrees by 10 points in 2004 but lost the state.

That means Mr Obama could carry Michigan while doing little better with this group - or even a little worse - than Mr Gore and Mr Kerry did, especially if he gets a larger turnout from African Americans and young voters.

"Gore and Kerry have shown you can win Pennsylvania without that group coming to your side in a big way, but it's a much easier road if you can keep some of those folks in the fold," says Muhlenberg College political scientist Chris Borick.

The challenge for Democrats may loom largest in Ohio. Mr Obama lost badly to Mrs Clinton in parts of the state's industrial northeast, where Democrats need to run up a big majority to offset losses elsewhere.

John Russo, director of the Centre for Working Class Studies at Youngstown State University, predicts Mr Obama will win over his share of Clinton supporters.

The region's economy is so weak, he says, that voter anger at Republicans will overshadow doubts about Mr Obama. In Republican primaries, Mr McCain too often lost the white working-class votes.

- (Washington Post service)