Who needs economic forecasts when 'Old Moore's Almanac' does it all for you, explains MAL ROGERS
'GENTLEMEN," SAID A grim-faced forecaster, "I have to tell you that the average temperature in January was 6.2 degrees. In July it was 25 degrees. At this rate of increase, by December it will be 58 degrees, and human life will be unsustainable."
Yes, the business of prediction is a hazardous one, whether you use statistics, as above, or set your store by the alignment of the stars, the fall of the tea leaves, or the writings of medieval monks.
Old Moore's Almanachas been in the divining business for over 300 years, but doesn't reveal its methodology. However, its longevity would seem to indicate it's doing something right.
Today's Irish version still contains much of the original mix - predictions, horoscopes, verse - but has added refinements such as lists of Government ministers and principal horse fairs and marts.
The prediction end of things is probably what has kept Old Moore perennially popular. But funnily enough it has never proved itself particularly adept at foretelling the future.
It is already one nil down for 2009. February's entry states: "Expect the Irish Government to come under more and more pressure from the majority of the EU states to agree to have a re-run of the Lisbon referendum."
Old Moore's Almanacdoesn't confine itself to political matters. In the field of science it predicts the future of agriculture with a risible suggestion - vertical farming.
Huge high-rise farms, like some multi-storey car park but with fields instead of cars, will, says Old Moore, become a common sight in our cities. Well, it seems risible unless you've also happened to buy a copy of the Scientific American. Because there it is in this widely respected publication - vertical agriculture in buildings called farmscrapers.
So Old Moore got that right. But we'll have to wait until April to see if either of their top sporting tips come true: Ronnie O'Sullivan for the snooker world championship and Cloudy Lane to win the English grand national. If you decide to attend the latter, Old Moore is predicting April to be the wettest month of the year.
So take your brolly.
Needless to say, the web is full of astrologers and assorted soothsayers. Many base their findings on the prophecies of Nostradamus, whose forecasts and yearly almanac were first published in 1555. According to some interpreters of his work, things are looking bleak for 2009.
The very least we can expect is a conflict between the US and Russia, a major terrorist attack on the USA, the nuclear destruction of Rome - and Ronnie O'Sullivan to win the snooker world championship. (Okay, a little bit of poetic licence about Ronnie the Rocket there.)
Nostradamus was predictably silent on the subject of sports, as indeed was our own futurologist, St Malachy, one of the heavy hitters in the medieval Christian church. Although Archbishop of Armagh, he managed to find the time to come up with the names of the 112 popes until the end of the world.
More bad news, unfortunately. We're now on Pope 111 - and several astrologers, alchemists, water diviners and soothsayers are predicting Pope Benedict XVI's sad demise in 2009 or 2010. He will be followed by Peter the Roman who will reveal his plans for the end of the world.
It would be fair to point out that many academics believe St Malachy's prophesies not to be his own work at all, but a cunning Baldrick-like plan by 16th-century Jesuits.
MORE GLOOM, I'M AFRAID, from another Armagh cleric. The world was created on October 23rd, 4004 BC, according to the Church of Ireland Archbishop of Armagh (1625) James Ussher. Ussher predicted that the world would end on November 4th, 1996 - exactly 6,000 years and 11 days after its creation - although as you probably noticed, this prediction has since proved to be inaccurate. Armageddon, as it were, failed to happen.
But let's face it, everyone makes a mistake, and Ussher was an extremely learned academic - his literary collection became the basis for the library at Trinity College Dublin. Now, his predictions are being looked at afresh and it seems that miscalculations in the calendar may account for his error.
You've probably guessed what the bad news is already.
November 4th, 2009, is a day to look out for: if Ussher is right, there will be fire and brimstone and great weeping and wailing. Followed, no doubt, by sunny spells and scattered showers in most areas. (Old Moore reckons November will be a cold, clear month, by the way.)