FOR the first time in several years, sub-Saharan Africa has survived 12 months without a major new humanitarian disaster. Not only have there been no new Rwandas or Somalias, but the're are also signs that several old conflicts could finally be running out of steam.
A shaky peace deal in Liberia is still holding, and despite hiccups, a settlement to Angola's 20-year civil war - the last armed conflict in southern Africa - still seems to be on track.
But while the end to apartheid in South Africa has removed the wellspring of conflict in the south, the failure to address ethnic tensions in central and east Africa could easily lead to renewed violence in Rwanda and a further escalation in Burundi, with serious implications for peace, within and between Zaire, Uganda, Sudan and even Kenya.
Obscure conflicts continue to paralyse Somalia, Sierra Leone and much of southern Sudan, while the potential for secessionist struggles increased in the giant states of Nigeria and Zaire. It could yet turn out that 1995 was only a calm interlude for the world's most troubled continent.
South Africa ended the year as it, as the great hope for the entire continent. Nelson Mandela's failure to prevent the execution of the Ogoni Nine in Nigeria may have dented his image as a potential peacemaker for Africa, but South Africa remains a pole of democratic stability and a possible "engine" for growth in a continent sinking deeper into poverty and aid dependency.
By the end of the year the country had earned its highest ever international credit rating and inflation was down to a 23-year low at less than 6.5 per cent. Growth is expected to reach four per cent next year. although this is still well below the six to seven per cent needed to fund black economic empowerment.
Local elections held on November 1st went smoothly, and confirmed that the ANC still enjoys the support of the great majority of black voters, despite the slow pace of economic and social reform. But polling was postponed in the troubled province of KwaZulu/Natal, where the Inkatha Freedom Party's campaign for a sovereign Zulu kingdom remains the major source of tension in the fledgling democracy.
Although political killings had fallen to a record low by the end of the year - down to 33 a month in November from 116 in January - several factors could lead to an escalation in violence.
Having boycotted the preparation of South Africa's new draft constitution, the IFP could yet see a strongly centralist model imposed on the country, instead of the loose confederation it seeks. In the meantime, the central government has taken steps to weaken the IFP's hold over the province, and in particular over the Zulu king, traditional leaders and policing.
Another threat to the IFP stems from the continuing investigation of past links between political hit squads, the IFP and the apartheid security forces. In March 1996 the former defence minister, Gen Magnus Malan and 19 others - including the IFP's deputy secretary general - are to stand trial for alleged complicity in hit squad attacks on anti-apartheid figures. The IFP leader, Chief Buthelezi, is named in the indictment as the prime mover behind the formation of the hit squads, although he is not among the accused.
The IFP has denounced the trial as a witch hunt. With the National Party, it is also opposing the setting up of a Truth Commission - to be chaired by Archbishop Desmond Tutu - to determine responsibility for apartheid-era political crime and offer amnesty to those who come forward.
While peace reigned across most of southern Africa during the year there were signs that democracy is not as deeply rooted as many had liked to believe. General elections held in Tanzania in October were described by foreign observers as deeply flawed: the ruling CCM party duly won.
In Zimbabwe, opposition parties boycotted elections, while in west Africa, President Henri Konan Bedie of the Ivory Coast disqualified his main rival on the grounds that one of his parents had been born in neighbouring Burkina Faso. In Zambia, President Chiluba is now using a similar ploy against his predecessor in office, Dr Kenneth Kaunda.
In the east, Kenya slid lower in tile eyes of the world following the internationally condemned conviction of dissident politician Koigi wa Wamwere on suspect robbery charges. Foreign donors were also reconsidering their commitment to President Daniel arap Moi's government following further revelations of massive corruption.
As the year drew to a close, the former US president, Mr Jimmy Carter, was intensifying efforts to find a solution to the Rwanda/Burundi crises, with talks involving the governments of both countries as well as of Zaire, Uganda and Tanzania, where up to two million Hutu refugees - mostly Rwandans - are still in exile.
The international tribunal on Rwanda's genocide was also preparing to issue the first of over 400 indictments. Inside Rwanda there was still little progress towards putting on trial more than 50,000 Hutu prisoners accused of complicity in the murder of up to one million Tutsis and moderate Hutus last year.
In Burundi, dozens of people were dying each week throughout the year as the Tutsi-dominated army drove members of the Hutu majority out of towns and cities. Inside Rwanda, there were growing reports of infiltration by Hutu guerrillas from Zaire, and of reprisal massacres by the Tutsi-dominated Rwandan Patriotic Army.
The long-running government crisis in Nigeria was catapulted onto the world agenda in November by the hanging of writer and minority activist Ken Saro Wiwa and eight other Ogoni leaders. The military regime of Gen Sani Abacha, which seized power after annulling elections held in 1993, claimed the Ogoni Nine" were guilty of murder and reacted indignantly to the withdrawal of western ambassadors and the imposition of arms and sporting sanctions.
It still seems doubtful, though, that the international community will be willing to impose oil sanctions on Nigeria, the only measure which would directly hurt the corrupt military elite. Nor is there any sign yet of mass action by the country's down-trodden and impoverished population.