Olmert's barking at Palestine may be worse than his bite

ISRAEL : No funding, no workers allowed into Israel, no passage between Gaza and the West Bank, no construction of an airport…

ISRAEL: No funding, no workers allowed into Israel, no passage between Gaza and the West Bank, no construction of an airport, no seaport, the closing of border crossings.

This is what Israeli defence officials have been proposing in recent days in response to the swearing in on Saturday of a Hamas-dominated Palestinian parliament.

But the bombastic pronouncements culminated yesterday in a watered-down decision by the government to freeze the handover of $50 million (€41.9 million) in tax and customs duties that Israel collects for the Palestinian Authority. The gap between the uncompromising declarations and the actual measures Israel has decided to take can be attributed to acting prime minister Ehud Olmert's need to balance conflicting electoral, security and international constraints.

The harsh statements cannot be detached from the fact that Mr Olmert is in the midst of an election campaign. While his Kadima (Forward) party enjoys a healthy lead, he needs to counter a shrill onslaught from the right, especially from the Likud party.

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Since Hamas's victory on January 25th, Israel's leaders have struggled to forge a coherent policy. It has seemed that they have wanted to topple a Hamas-led authority by intense economic pressure and international isolation. At other times, it has seemed they might be employing punitive measures to force Hamas to moderate.

The reality is that Israel's options are limited. A senior adviser to Mr Olmert was quoted recently as saying the sanctions being planned against the Palestinian Authority were aimed at making the Palestinians "get thinner, but not die".

But if Israel creates a humanitarian crisis in Gaza, it will face international reproach. The attempt to isolate Hamas is already faltering. The new Hamas leaders have been invited to Russia to meet President Putin and have received an invitation from Turkey.

Mr Olmert can be expected to talk tough until the elections on March 28th, but his actions are likely to be less severe.

The acting prime minister, who enthusiastically supported the Gaza pull-out last year, is a strong believer in unilateralism. For all the talk of punitive measures, if he becomes prime minister Mr Olmert's most dramatic response to Hamas's rise to power could be another unilateral withdrawal - this time, in the West Bank.