ANALYSIS:The DUP is in Catch 22 situation – and that may be the First Minister's only hope, writes GERRY MORIARTY
IT WAS the sound of silence that seemed so ominous for Peter Robinson yesterday. No one in the DUP was rallying to his cause although Finance Minister Sammy Wilson said he still commanded the support of his party and the revelations that had damaged Iris Robinson have not damaged Peter.
But others feel he can’t surmount the hurdles. One DUP figure said he had “no hope” of remaining on as leader and that he did not accept that, as another insider said, “If you lose Peter you lose Stormont”.
East Derry MP and Assembly member Gregory Campbell said Robinson had a week to save his leadership. It’s during that time Robinson hopes a senior counsel will give him the all-clear in terms of whether he breached any protocols in not officially reporting that Iris sought and got loans totalling £50,000 for her former lover Kirk McCambley.
He could very well get that clean bill of health but Robinson and everyone else knows that what is at stake here is whether the party views that the “least worst situation” is to keep him as leader or to dump him. It’s bad no matter what the DUP does.
The story is still providing sensational headlines at the tabloid level but politically the British and Irish governments know this is a total mess. DUP Assembly members, too, must know they are in a terrible bind. Indeed it’s that very Catch 22 situation that the DUP parliamentary party must grapple with that remains the only hope for Robinson to survive.
There were more lurid stories about Iris and her lover yesterday but nothing on the financial front that would damage the First Minister. BBC’s Panorama is planning to run another Robinsons’ programme tonight but at the time of writing it’s mainly a review of BBC Northern Ireland’s Spotlight exposé so that people on the British “mainland” can savour the story that so mesmerised the island of Ireland on Thursday night.
There are arguments for and against Robinson surviving. The negative argument is that the party sees him as a liability and must jettison him regardless of consequences. The MLA mentioned above who reckons Robinson is heading for the door marked “exit” feels he is just reflecting the hard reality of internal DUP politics. The party generally just cannot wear all the sexual and financial allegations that cling to Iris.
You can see this in the comments of Free Presbyterian minister the Rev David McIlveen who believes that Robinson’s position as leader is “untenable”. The DUP is a much broader church than it was 10 or 15 years ago but McIlveen reflects a substantial grassroots view.
Equally though the party must consider the implications of ditching him. If Robinson was forced to step down there would be seven days for a new First Minister and Deputy First Minister to be reappointed.
Nigel Dodds or whoever might be nominated to succeed Robinson would require the support of Sinn Féin for the First Minister’s post. That can hardly happen without a copperfastened DUP commitment to the transfer of policing and justice powers.
It’s difficult to see Dodds, who is hardly enthusiastic about powersharing, being so daring. If a First Minister and Deputy First Minister can’t be nominated then Northern Secretary Shaun Woodward would be legally obliged to call Assembly elections.
It seems that Woodward would have discretion over when the elections would take place, but does any DUP MLA fancy facing the public now, or in the coming months? Would it not be more in their interests to try and see out the lifetime of the Assembly to next year, when the climate might have improved? But that means signing up to policing and justice. A bind for sure.
There is a variation of this scenario where the British and Irish governments take control of the situation, bring all the main parties around a negotiating table to provide cover for the DUP.
Some very surprising suggestions are being mooted, the oddest that the Rev Ian Paisley would return as an interim leader while Robinson sorted out his personal affairs. Dr Paisley, who observes a Sabbatarian silence, has yet to pronounce on the issue. His comments could be telling.
The odds are still against Robinson surviving. Ultimately, for the Democratic Unionists it may be a case of the DUP above Robinson and also above the greater political good.