Irish troops in Kosovo face significant challenges in the coming months as negotiations on the divided province's autonomy come to a climax, writes John Downesin Pristina
'Independence for Kosovo. The only way to peace in the Balkans". The sticker posted at the entrance to the Hotel Baci in the bustling Mother Teresa street, Pristina, reveals much about the feelings of the majority ethnic Albanian population of Kosovo.
The future of the province, which is home to a strong pro-independence movement, is currently the subject of intense speculation and no small degree of unease. Run by the UN and Nato for the past eight years, Kosovo is part of Serbia but has a majority ethnic Albanian population and minority Serbian contingent.
Tensions between these groups are set to come to a head on December 10th, when a troika of the EU, the US and Russia report to the UN Security Council on the outcome of discussions aimed at securing agreement on a form of supervised autonomy. This is supported by Albanian Kosovars but opposed by their Serbian counterparts.
Known as the Ahtisaari plan, in recognition of the former Finnish prime minister who put it together, it would allow for supervised autonomy for Kosovo, with specific protections for the minority Serbian population.
The omens for a successful outcome from these talks are not good, however. Russia, a key ally of Serbia, previously blocked the plan at the UN and many analysts are pessimistic about the likelihood of any progress.
Meanwhile, there have been fears that a failure to reach agreement could provoke significant unrest within the province, both in the run-up to December and beyond.
As lead nation of one of the multinational task forces in Kosovo, some 270 Irish men and women serving with the defence forces there will play a crucial role should trouble break out.
Sitting in a briefing room at Camp Ville, the headquarters of the multinational task force which he has commanded since last month, Brigadier General Gerry Hegarty, a personable if cautious interviewee, is only too aware of the potential flashpoints over the coming months.
These include the assembly, municipality and mayoral elections in November, and most crucially, the December deadline for the troika submission and its aftermath.
The 1,500 troops from Ireland, Sweden, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Finland and Latvia which Brig Gen Hegarty commands oversee an area of central Kosovo with a population of more than 900,000, representing around half the total population of the territory.
It includes the capital Pristina and over 250 villages, most majority Albanian but some Serbian.
Unemployment in the Irish area of responsibility is estimated at 70 per cent of the population, many of whom are under 25, with other key problems including water shortages, bread price increases, and the all-pervasive influence of organised crime.
Roadside hawkers and contraband goods are to be seen for sale throughout Pristina itself, where, despite inward investment from successful expatriates living in countries such as Germany and elsewhere, it is not unusual to see a corrugated iron shed for a bus stop.
Brig Gen Hegarty is the first Irish Army officer to command this type of multinational taskforce in the Balkans, bringing together non-Nato and Nato nations in peace missions. But this has in turn prompted concerns about the implications for Irish neutrality (see panel).
Having just briefed the Minister of State at the Department of Defence, Tom Kitt, on the situation in Kosovo, Brig Gen Hegarty tells members of the Irish media that while the threat assessment is currently "calm", underlying tensions remain.
Mr Kitt met Brig Gen Hegarty as part of the former's three-day visit to the area last week.
"We are preparing for the worst-case scenarios and hoping for the best-case scenario," he says.
The troops under his command are "more than sufficient" for what he needs to guarantee the safety of the area, he says.
However, he also has the option of calling in large numbers of extra non-Irish troops within a matter of hours should the need arise. These would be primarily drawn from existing troops stationed in the province.
Significant riots broke out next to the Serbian enclave of Gracanica and elsewhere in 2004. The town is of huge historical and religious significance to Serbs due to the Serbian Orthodox Gracanica monastery, built by the Serbian King Milutun in the 13th century. The riots caught military commanders by surprise and showed just how quickly events can spiral out of control. It is something that Brig Gen Hegarty does not wish to see happen again. With this in mind, he says that, compared to 2004, the level of intelligence has improved significantly on the ground.
One key element of this "early warning" system has been the development of liaison and monitoring teams, including Irish troops, which interact with local communities and can feed valuable intelligence to their commanders.
Labelled by some as the "latte and macchiato" teams, due to the amount of caffeine-fuelled interaction they undertake, groups of these men and women meet on a daily basis with the local communities in which they operate.
Similarly, significant emphasis has been placed on crowd control and riot training of troops, Brig Gen Hegarty says.
Whether all these precautions will prove necessary remains to be seen. But the sense of nervousness around what is a fluid, tense situation is palpable at times in Pristina itself.
It is perhaps best summed-up by comments from the UN special representative of the secretary general, Joachim Rücker, earlier this week. The most senior UN official in the province, Rücker said the international community, and in particular the EU, has to be prepared for "all scenarios". However, he declined to speculate as to what these scenarios might be.
"Obviously, we would all like to see an agreement . . . We'd all be very happy if that were the case. If not, I think the international community has also to prepare for other scenarios," he said. "What I'm saying is, one has to be prepared, we should not fall into a hole." Mr Kitt, who met with Rücker during his visit, also acknowledged there are "very challenging" times ahead.
"We're aware of the seriousness of the situation, the need for all of us to focus (and) in particular, for Ireland not alone to do its work here, to keep its commitment to Kfor here in Kosovo, but also to be a very active player at EU level," he said. "There is a process of dialogue here between Belgrade and Pristina, it is important we give this a chance."
Others, such as Lutfi Haziri, the deputy prime minister in Kosovo's interim government, are more frank in stating why the issue is so pressing for ethnic Albanian Kosovars.
A man who was previously arrested for being a leader of the pro-independence Kosovo Liberation Army in the past, Haziri emphasises the need for a "common decision" on the future of the province.
He claims that Ahtisaari's proposals represent a compromise for Kosovo, adding that Kosovars have for too long lived under the threat of "not having their future decided". They have experienced tragedy and discrimination as a collective society during that time, and the absence of a decision is leading to much hesitation and frustration among its residents, he says.
Asked by The Irish Times if there was a risk of a return to the gun, he acknowledges that the biggest threat was destabilisation of the region.
"Frankly, we need a decision, a pure decision of the EU and UN, and then all together all Kosovars, majority ethnic Albanians, minority ethnic Serbs will work together without any obstacles in the future . . . the biggest threat is destabilisation of the region because of ethnic problems. (This) is the worst scenario . . . none of us, including Serbia, like destabilisation, we need to work together."
Another possibility may be the partition of the country, a move which Russia has recently indicated it would not block should this be agreed. But both sides are opposed to this, for very different reasons.
Ethnic Albanians fear losing part of their territory to Serbia, while those Serbs who live in more southern villages fear persecution should they choose to remain there following any such move.
But others on the ground point out that there is already de facto quasi-partition when you look at the daily lives of Kosovars.
This is because most of the Serbian minority live in the northern part of the province. Those who live elsewhere in Kosovo do so in separate, heavily patrolled villages.
Serbian children in Kosovo are taught the Serbian syllabus in schools by teachers bankrolled by Belgrade. It is also not unusual for some to travel to Serbia to do their monthly banking.
At one point on Mr Kitt's visit, he stopped off at a school in the municipality of Stimjle, outside Pristina, where he announced details of a funding allocation from Irish Aid to allow for investment in a basketball court and football pitch, among other things.
There, the bright-eyed and enthusiastic students of primary-school age could barely hide their excitement at the visit of such a prestigious group, and the booty they brought.
One senior person among the travelling party points out that these children have little or no memory of the horrors which dominated so much of Kosovo's past.
As a result, they represent arguably the greatest hope for a peaceful future in the province and the wider region.
Crucially, what form this future takes may be shaped significantly in the coming months, and in no small part by the ability of the Irish troops to maintain a fragile peace too often shattered in the past.
In the war zone: the Irish role
When the war ended in June 1999, Nato troops intervened to secure the peace and security of the area. Around 110 Irish troops subseqently arrived in the province in September 1999, operating under a UN mandate but operationally under Nato control.
In December 1999, the Republic formally joined the Nato-led Partnership for Peace (PfP), which encourages closer links between Nato and non-Nato troops in peace missions. A political entity which also promotes inter-operability among forces, Ireland's participation in PfP has caused concerns about its implications for Irish neutrality.
Brig Gen Gerry Hegarty took command of one of five multinational taskforces under PfP in Kosovo last month. He is the first Irish Army officer to command this type of multinational taskforce in the Balkans.
French Lieutenant General Xavier de Marnhac is the overall commander of some 16,000 international troops currently stationed in Kosovo.
A fragile peace: Kosovo reaches a turning point
More than 270 Irish troops are participating in Nato's Partnership for Peace (PfP) mission in central Kosovo. Last month, Brigadier General Gerry Hegarty took command of a multinational taskforce which is helping to provide security for more than 900,000 people in the area.
Situated in the Balkans, and bordered by Serbia and Albania, Kosovo is nominally part of Serbia but is UN-run since 1999, following the bloody break-up of the former Yugoslavia.
The majority population of ethnic Albanians, who suffered persecution under the regime of Slobodan Milosevic, are in favour of independence, but Serbia and its ally Russia have strongly opposed this.
A troika of the EU, the US and Russia is due to report to the UN Security Council on the outcome of discussions aimed at securing agreement on a form of supervised autonomy for the region by December 10th.