FRANCE: One year after France struck the first, possibly lethal, blow to the European constitutional treaty, neither its supporters, who predicted a catastrophe if it was defeated, nor opponents, who wanted instead an invigorated "social Europe", have been proven right.
Yesterday's first anniversary of the French No vote was a time for taking stock. Opinion polls indicate there's been little change of heart. If the referendum were held again, the treaty would still be rejected, by 52 per cent of French voters (compared to 54.67 per cent last year), a CSA poll for Le Parisien newspaper concluded.
A poll published by Libération on May 17th showed that 98 per cent of French No voters do not regret their choice, while 89 per cent of those who voted Yes would still do so.
Supporters of the treaty, like the former foreign minister Michel Barnier (who was sacked after the No vote), say France's influence in Europe has diminished. "Our neighbours and partners did not understand our rejection of a text that was largely inspired by France," Mr Barnier told the Journal du Dimanche.
"Nor do they understand our silence on the European question for the past 12 months."
Since the referendum, France has lost key posts within the commission to Germans, Britons and Irish "who are reputed to be more dynamic and less prone to griping", Le Figaro reported.
The use of the French language has also declined, partly because of stronger German influence following enlargement. This explains President Jacques Chirac's protest walk-out when a French business leader addressed the Council of Europe in English during the March summit.
The fall-back "plan B" trumpeted by the No camp never materialised. Laurent Fabius, the former socialist prime minister who led the No campaign, has not benefited politically from his victory, and looks certain to lose the socialist presidential nomination to the parliamentary deputy and president of the Poitou-Charentes region Ségolène Royal, who ardently supported the treaty.
One of the most tangible results of the French referendum was the revision of the economically liberal Bolkestein services directive, which would have allowed citizens of less affluent states to work in richer EU countries for the wages paid in their home countries.
The blockage over the constitution also seems to have slowed enlargement, which is favoured by economic liberals. Though Turkey and Croatia began negotiations last October, the union is stressing adherence with criteria and "absorption capacity".
France will hold presidential elections one year from now. It is far from certain that a new French president would give impetus to the stalled EU constitution, but that is what France's European partners seem to be hoping.
Europe has been edged out of French political debate by more pressing domestic issues - race riots last November, the government's failed attempt to introduce flexibility into the youth jobs market, and the Clearstream political slander scandal.
"We're not going to restart the Yes or No campaign," Alain Lamassoure, a former minister for European affairs who is now an adviser to the right-wing presidential candidate, Nicolas Sarkozy, told Libération. "It left bad memories everywhere. No one wants to open old wounds."
The same feeling prevails in the socialist opposition, which has miraculously - if superficially - healed the deep divisions created by the European referendum. Campaigning in southern France at the weekend, Ms Royal said that unemployment, the environment and research were now higher priorities than endowing Europe with a constitution.