Only alliance of parties can upset DUP

In East Belfast, the strongly unionist constituency closely associated with the Harland & Wolff shipyard, whose giant cranes…

In East Belfast, the strongly unionist constituency closely associated with the Harland & Wolff shipyard, whose giant cranes dominate the skyline, the sitting MP, Mr Peter Robinson of the DUP, is expected to sleep-walk to victory next month - unless the Ulster Unionist Party and Alliance get their act together and form a pact under which one of them withdraws.

The UUP did not contest the seat in the 1987 and 1992 Westminster elections, but in 1997 put up one of the party's most senior politicians, Sir Reg Empey, who polled 9,886 votes - just over 25 per cent of the poll. He finished well behind Mr Robinson, whose 16,640 votes amounted to almost 43 per cent of the vote. The Alliance candidate, Mr Jim Hendron, came third with 9,288 votes.

In the 1998 Assembly election, the DUP received 30.88 per cent of the vote, against 24.3 per cent for the UUP, with Alliance polling 18 per cent. The drop in DUP support was attributed mainly to a strong performance (over 13 per cent) by the Progressive Unionist Party (PUP), which is linked to the Ulster Volunteer Force.

So simple mathematics show that if there was only one proagreement candidate collecting the UUP and Alliance votes, he or she could unseat Mr Robinson, particularly since the PUP's Mr David Ervine has declared his intention to stand. Both the UUP and Alliance have called on each other to withdraw their candidate, but both parties remain in the race.

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The two have until Tuesday to throw in their lot together, but so far Mr David Trimble is opposed to any pacts. He yesterday called on Alliance to "use its brain, to think politically". If neither of the two pro-agreement parties can bring itself to blink first, Mr Robinson is sure to win.

The Ulster Unionist, proagreement candidate, Mr Tim Lemon (31), whose posters - "The future's bright - the future's Lemon" - appear to adorn almost every lamp-post in the constituency, says his greatest plus is that his family is deeply rooted in east Belfast.

A definite Trimbleite, he has worked as an election aide for Sir Reg Empey but has no other substantial political experience. He feels he is the only pro-agreement candidate capable of winning the constituency as "Alliance is not naturally perceived as a unionist party".

Dr David Alderdice (34), who served a term as the city's lord mayor and is the brother of the Assembly's Speaker, Lord Alderdice, reacts to a mention of the UUP candidate's name with "Lemon who?" - claiming he thought Mr Lemon's poster campaign was "meant as a joke".

Mr Robinson (52) makes no secret of his glee at the disunity in the pro-agreement camp, describing his two opponents' disagreements as the "Cola wars".

As for Mr Lemon's posters, they were "a bit like a dog lifting his leg at every lamp-post". The DUP deputy leader says the message on the doorstep is that voters have "had enough of Mr Trimble's broken pledges" and that the PUP's candidature will only serve to further split the pro-agreement vote.

With a Catholic population of fewer than six in every 100 - the lowest proportion of any Northern Ireland constituency - the SDLP candidate, Ms Ciara Farren, daughter of the Higher Education Minister, Mr Sean Farren, and Sinn Fein's Mr Joe O'Donnell will hardly be more than also-rans. The Conservative Party is expected to field Mr Terry Dick.

In the local council elections, East Belfast includes the wards of Victoria and Pottinger, as well as two wards in Castlereagh, Castlereagh Central and East. In the 1997 local government elections the DUP won 11 council seats, the UUP 8, Alliance 5, PUP 1 and UKUP1.