Opec meets today to consider a token rise in oil output proposed by Saudi Arabia and other Gulf Arab states to placate consumer nations worried by the economic impact of $77 oil and rapidly diminishing stocks.
The plan may struggle to win support from members including Iran and Venezuela that take a more hawkish view of price. "They favour a small increase," an Opec source said of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Kuwait. "But if they meet stiff resistance, they may just drop the idea."
Opec, pumping some 30 million barrels per day into the 86 million bpd global market, is trying to make sense of conflicting economic data leading into peak winter demand.
Industrialised consumer nations are forecasting their crude oil stocks will fall to the bottom of the five-year average range by January unless Opec pumps more crude oil, and fast.
US crude oil is above $77, close to its August 1st record high of $78.77 a barrel, following attacks on oil and natural gas pipelines in Mexico, the world's fifth largest crude exporter.
But uncertainty over the US economy - last month employers cut jobs for the first time in four years - has cast doubt over oil demand growth in the world's top consumer.
The 10 Opec states subject to restraint are already pumping nearly 1.0 million bpd above their 25.8 million bpd limit anyway.