LABOUR is heading into the final week of the British election campaign with leads over the Conservatives ranging from IS to 24 per cent, according to four opinion polls published yesterday.
Even the lowest of the leads could produce a landslide Labour victory on Thursday of more than 150 seats over all other parties. If the largest lead was confirmed, the majority could be as great as 261.
The prospect of a Labour landslide was confirmed in a series of constituency polls which show four Conservative cabinet ministers trailing their opponents and a further four, including the likely Tory leadership contender Mr Michael Portillo, at risk from a late surge of tactical antiConservative voting.
Labour's largest lead came in a MORI poll for the Sunday Mirror and Independent on Sunday showing Labour on 53 per cent Conservatives 29, Liberal Democrats 12 and other parties on 6 per cent. This compares with a similar poll taken three weeks ago which put the ratings on 55-30-9-6. On a uniform swing, Labour's 24 point lead in the latest MORI translates into 460 Labour seats in the new House of Commons and an improbably large overall majority of 261.
NOP's weekly poll for the Sunday Times showed Labour on 47 per cent (up two points from last week), Conservatives 29 (down two) and the Liberal Democrats 16 (down one). NOP's Labour lead of 18 points would give a Labour majority in the Commons of 185 seats.
Gallup's latest rolling poll for the Sunday Telegraph put Labour on 48 per cent (down one from last Sunday), Conservatives 31 (down two) and Liberal Democrats 13 (up one). On a uniform swing that would produce a Commons majority of 177 over the other parties.
ICM's panel survey in the Observer, which reinterviews the same voters as in previous weeks of the campaign, remarkably came up with exactly the same result as it did the week before, with Labour 47 per cent, Conservatives 32 and Liberal Democrats 16 equivalent to a Labour majority of 151 in the new parliament.
Two regional polls piled on the misery for the Conservatives. NOP for the Sunday Times in Scotland showed Labour 49, Conservatives 14, Liberal Democrats 12 and the Scottish National Party 24, an 11 point Tory Labour swing compared with 1992. A Gallup survey for London Weekend Television showed a 15 point Tory Labour swing in the capital since the last election, with Labour now 54, Conservatives 32 and Liberal Democrats 10.
Uniformly applied across London, the Gallup/LWT poll would put Defence Secretary Mr Portillo only two points ahead of hiss Labour challenger in his Enfield Southgate constituency (45-43, with the Liberal Democrats nine). The closeness of the contest there was confirmed in an ICM/Observer poll in the constituency which put the Conservatives on 45, against Labour 41 and Liberal Democrats 11, underlining that Mr Portillo could suffer a shock defeat if Liberal Democrats switch tactically to Labour on Thursday.
The ICM/Observer survey also showed that seven Cabinet ministers are currently trailing their opponents. One, Trade Secretary Mr Ian Lang, is 11 points behind the SNP in Galloway & Upper Nithsdale. The other six are all in second place behind Labour. In descending order, they are: Mr Michael Forsyth (Scottish Secretary), 21 points behind in Stirling; Mr Malcolm Rifkind (Foreign Secretary), eight points behind in Edinburgh Pentlands; Mr William Waldegrave (Treasury Chief Secretary), eight points behind in Bristol West; Mr Tony Newton (Leader of the House), three points behind in Braintree; Ms Gillian Shephard (Education), two points down in Norfolk SW; and Mr Roger Freeman (public services) one point down in Kettering.
ICM's surveys suggest that Conservative support is down by between three and four points extra in Toryheld areas, suggesting that the final result may be even worse for the government than the national polls imply. However, the Gallup/Sunday Telegraph poll finds the reverse, with Labour's lead in the marginals lagging slightly behind the national figures.